Will Trump’s new Gaza ceasefire proposal end Israel’s genocide?

United States President Donald Trump is pushing for a ceasefire deal in Gaza after issuing a “last warning” to the Palestinian group Hamas.

Trump provided few details, but he insinuated that the already catastrophic war on Gaza – in which Israel has already killed more than 64,500 Palestinians and a famine has been declared – could get even worse if Hamas did not submit to the terms of his new proposal.

Negotiators from the US, Qatar, and Egypt have been working on a ceasefire deal for months, but Israeli officials have repeatedly rejected or failed to respond to efforts to bring an end to their military operations.

Most recently, Hamas accepted a ceasefire proposal crafted months ago by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which would have resulted in the partial release of captives held in Gaza.

However, Israel and the US backed out after Netanyahu changed his tune and insisted on a full release of captives – as well as the full surrender of Hamas. Trump is now claiming that his new proposal could lead to a different and more positive outcome.

“We’re working on a solution that may be very good … You’ll be hearing about it pretty soon. We’re trying to get it ended, get the hostages back,” the US president told reporters in Washington, DC on Sunday evening, referring to the Israeli captives still in Gaza.

Here’s all you need to know about Trump’s latest plan and if it will stop Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.

What is the plan?

Little information has been disclosed about the deal. However, Israeli media outlets say that the proposal is similar to one previously proposed by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, but with a few crucial differences.

Witkoff had previously proposed a deal where half of the living Israeli captives would be released, which would then lead to a 60-day ceasefire, and negotiations for a permanent end to the war. This was agreed to by Israel, but then, once Hamas had also indicated its agreement, Netanyahu insisted on the release of all the captives, reportedly telling the Israeli cabinet that “a partial deal is not relevant”, and that “Hamas must be destroyed”.

The current proposal being pushed by Trump appears to call for a release of all Israeli captives from the get-go, in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian captives in Israeli prisons, and then only negotiations – but no permanent end to the war.

“[The new proposal] is basically a variation of the Witkoff plan – a hostages-for-prisoners swap, after which negotiations will commence to end the war,” according to an analysis in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

The crucial difference is that the release of all the captives would not come in exchange for an immediate end to the war, leaving Israel with little incentive to not continue attacking Gaza with even more intensity in pursuit of its stated goal to completely destroy Hamas. That goal is difficult to quantify, and many Palestinians see it as useful cover for the complete destruction of Gaza.

How has Hamas responded?

Hamas confirmed it had received a US proposal. The group put out a statement saying it welcomed “any initiative that helps in the efforts to stop the aggression against our people”.

Hamas has repeatedly stuck to its own position: that the remaining Israeli captives held in Gaza be released in exchange for guarantees that Israel would stop its attacks and withdraw from Gaza.

“We affirm our immediate readiness to sit at the negotiation table to discuss the release of all prisoners in exchange for a clear declaration to end the war, the full withdrawal from Gaza, and the formation of a committee to manage Gaza from Palestinian independents, who will immediately begin their work,” a Hamas statement obtained by the news outlet Drop Site News is reported to have said.

Writing on Telegram, senior Hamas official Basem Naim said: “It is clear that the primary goal is to reach the refusal of the offer and not reach an agreement that leads to the end of the war.”

What is Israel’s position?

Israel has accepted the proposal, according to a press conference that Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar gave on Monday. He said that Israel was ready to end the war in exchange for all the captives and for Hamas laying down its weapons.

Hamas has previously said that it would surrender its weapons only if Israel withdraws from Gaza and agrees to a Palestinian state made up of the occupied West Bank and Gaza, with occupied East Jerusalem as its capital.

Despite Israel’s backing for Trump’s proposal, some analysts believe Israel will later try to spin the proposal and claim that they accepted it while Hamas were the ones to refuse. This has precedence.

Hamas has previously accepted ceasefire proposals, only for Netanyahu to add conditions he knows will not be amenable to the group – or to Palestinians – as a tactic to continue the war.

In the meantime, Israeli officials are continuing to threaten Gaza.

Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz warned on Monday that a “powerful hurricane” will hit the territory and destroy Hamas targets, as Israel destroys civilian high-rise buildings across the Gaza Strip.

Also on Monday, Netanyahu threatened Gaza City residents, telling them to “get out of there”, and that a ground operation was about to begin in the city.

Will the proposal work?

Trump is confident it will.

“I think we’re going to get them all,” he said of the return of the Israeli captives. Trump had previously predicted on August 25 that the war would come to a “conclusive ending” within three weeks.

But it is unclear why this time will be any different from when Trump made past promises to end the war. Analysts largely believe Trump’s latest proposal will meet similar fates as past ones, largely due to Netanyahu’s reticence to end the war.

“It won’t lead to anything because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no desire or interest to end the war,” Chaim Levinson wrote in an analysis for Haaretz. “Rather, he wants to claim that Hamas is being recalcitrant so he can keep it going for many months.”

The US under Trump has also shown little appetite to rein in Netanyahu. Back in May, Witkoff told Qatari and Egyptian mediators that the US will not “force Israel to end the Gaza war”.

Can Trump be trusted?

Trump is saying that if Hamas gives up all the remaining captives, the US will make sure negotiations progress. However, Trump made a similar promise when his team helped outgoing US President Joe Biden ink a ceasefire deal that came into effect on January 19.

Netanyahu unilaterally violated the ceasefire to continue the war two months later.

Critics are sceptical that Netanyahu will stick to any future ceasefire agreement unless the US reins him in and holds Israel accountable.

“There is very good reason not to trust either Netanyahu or Trump at this moment on forcing Israel to stick to its word,” said Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, a think tank in Doha, Qatar.

“That is especially true in light of their public plans to ethnically cleanse Gaza and turn it into an American real estate development,” he told media.

Trump previously proposed that Gaza’s population be forced out and that a “Gaza Riviera” be built on the ruins of the territory, an idea widely condemned as ethnic cleansing. The US president has largely dropped mention of the proposal, although he and his administration have occasionally returned to the idea.

What happens next?

Israel’s genocide in Gaza does not look like it will end in the foreseeable future.

As Trump levels threats at Hamas, medics in Gaza have limited supplies and struggle to treat patients, survivors describe being in parts of Gaza as “living in a piece of hell”, more children are starving to death, and Israeli forces target the Strip’s remaining infrastructure.