Analysis: How happy is Israel’s Netanyahu with Trump’s Gaza plan?

Standing next to Donald Trump on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged that he had accepted the plan put forward by the United States president to end Israel’s war on Gaza.

But a few hours later – and this time speaking in Hebrew rather than English – Netanyahu couched that agreement, telling his domestic audience that he definitely had not agreed to a Palestinian state and the Israeli military would remain in most of Gaza.

On paper, Trump’s 20-point plan fulfils many of Israel’s stated war aims: the return of Israeli captives, the dismantling of Hamas as a military and political force, and the creation of a temporary international administration in Gaza unlikely to threaten Israel.

But agreeing to any deal has political and personal costs for Netanyahu, who has kept his government together largely because of his insistence that the war continue. Is he finally ready to end a conflict that has killed more than 66,000 Palestinians? Or will he find another way to prolong the war?

Risky manoeuvre

As well as fulfilling most of Israel’s demands, Trump’s Gaza plan also lets Netanyahu present himself as a victorious war leader before next year’s elections as well as any potential investigation into government failings that may have led to the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

“For Netanyahu, Trump’s deal allows him to portray himself as the full package,” Israeli political scientist Ori Goldberg said. “‘Look at me,’ he can say. ‘I fought the war. I destroyed all of Gaza. I went further than anyone ever thought possible. I have proven my devotion to Israel and its security, but now it’s time for cooler heads to prevail.’”

“This isn’t about facts. It’s about narrative,” Goldberg added.

That is important for Netanyahu because any move to end the war is a risky one. Netanyahu, despite being Israel’s longest-serving leader, faces fierce opposition in his own country related to his own domestic policies, the corruption charges he faces and disagreements over his failure to agree a deal to release the captives held in Gaza.

He, therefore, has had to rely on the support of far-right cabinet members, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who have made their backing conditional upon maintaining and even expanding the war on Gaza.

Critics have also suggested that Netanyahu may be seeking to prolong the war to avoid a potential prison term in his ongoing corruption trial or to prevent an official inquiry into his government’s failures before Hamas’s October 2023 attacks – inquiries that previously led to the resignations of Israel’s chief of staff and the head of its domestic intelligence service, Shin Bet.

“These risks haven’t diminished,” said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York. “You need to remember, Trump’s not like [former US President Joe] Biden. Netanyahu can’t rely on all his friends in the Republican Party to try to circumvent the president. That leverage has all gone. If Trump wants to, he’s in a position to make life very difficult for Netanyahu – and Netanyahu knows that.”

Pinkas explained that Netanyahu was instructed to fly to the US and agree to the plan publicly. “I think Trump guessed that, if this had been agreed behind closed doors, Netanyahu’s more than capable of coming out and presenting an entirely different reality. … By making this agreement in public, he can’t do that,” he said.

Far-right opposition

Demonstrations calling for negotiations to end the war and return the Israeli captives held in Gaza have run almost throughout the conflict, and many polls in recent months suggested a majority of the Israeli public wants to see an end to the war. Within the Knesset, or parliament, opposition MPs, including their leader, Yair Lapid, have repeatedly offered to lend Netanyahu the support needed to push through a ceasefire, making an acceptance of the US terms politically possible and publicly popular.

But Netanyahu has instead repeatedly chosen to throw in his lot with the far right, which, far from wanting an end to the war, wants Israel to fully take over Gaza and settle it with Jewish Israelis while forcing Palestinians out.

Smotrich has rejected the Trump plan, posting on social media that it is “a resounding diplomatic failure, a closing of eyes and turning our backs on all the lessons of October 7, and in my estimation, it will also end in tears”.

Ben-Gvir is also expected to oppose the deal although his anger so far has focused on Netanyahu’s reported apology to Qatar – reportedly made under US pressure – for Israel’s unprovoked attack on Hamas’s negotiating team in Doha in September.

For the far-right settler movement, the plan represents a disappointment but not a surprise. For Ben-Gvir, it is merely a setback in a populist agenda designed to stoke division and make Palestinian lives harder.

“Smotrich and the settlers will be disappointed, but there you go,” Goldberg said. “They all thought this was the final God-given war that would see them triumphant. Now they’re beginning to realise it was just the same old Netanyahu pantomime. Ben-Gvir will probably consider his options. He’ll probably pretend it isn’t happening. He’ll never publicly support it, but equally, he’s not going to rush to leave the cabinet.

“But this isn’t just about the cabinet. The Knesset is bound to support this with those that call themselves ‘liberals’ rallying round to back what they’ll claim is a ‘peace deal’. But what a ‘peace deal’ means in the context of a genocide really isn’t clear.”

Complicating the picture

While Netanyahu may hope to cast himself as Israel’s saviour, analysts argued he is trapped by circumstance and focused on his immediate survival.

“My guess is that he’ll try and kill it softly,” Pinkas said. “He’ll say we’re studying it carefully, that we have some slight security concerns and a few items to sort out. At the same time, he’ll escalate the war on Gaza and scale up his rhetoric on Iran. In a few weeks, the reality will have changed, the plan will no longer apply and, he hopes, Trump’s attention will have already moved on.”

Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House agreed that Netanyahu’s horizon is defined by “political survival”. “If Ben-Gvir, Smotrich or other right-wing figures desert the coalition, Netanyahu may call elections, claiming victory by pointing to Hamas’s dismantling, the return of hostages and the presence of foreign troops in Gaza,” Mekelberg said. “‘We eliminated Hamas. We managed to get most of the hostages alive. … Look what we have done,’ he could argue.”

Yet Mekelberg warned that “the minute the war is over, Netanyahu might very quickly find himself isolated” with rivals in Likud, the far right, the opposition and ultra-Orthodox allies all sensing weakness. “You never bet against Netanyahu – he knows how to manipulate. Still, he’s more and more in a corner.”