A historic water crisis forces drastic cuts to farming, reverses years of progress, and threatens to displace more rural communities.
NAJAF, Iraq – A relentless drought and plummeting river flows are shattering Iraq’s ambitious and costly drive to produce enough wheat for its own people, forcing a return to import dependency and pushing rural communities to the brink.
Farmer Ma’an Al-Fatlawi, standing by a near-dry irrigation canal in Najaf, encapsulates the crisis. “We rely on river water,” he said, having slashed his wheat planting by 80% this season. With groundwater too saline for wells, he and countless others are at the mercy of a shrinking Euphrates.
This scene spells the end of a rare success story. After years of heavy subsidies for farmers, Iraq achieved three consecutive wheat surpluses, building a strategic reserve of over 6 million tons. Now, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns this season’s harvest could drop by 30-50%, a direct threat to national food security.
A Perfect Storm of Climate and Politics
The crisis stems from a confluence of severe challenges. Iraq, ranked fifth globally for climate risk, is heating at nearly 0.5°C per decade while rainfall declines. Compounding this natural vulnerability is its geopolitical one: 70% of its water comes from upstream neighbors Turkey and Iran, which have diverted flows with new dams.
“The diminishing amount of water that has trickled down to Iraq is the biggest factor,” said Salah El Hajj Hassan, FAO Iraq Representative. He revealed the country’s total water reserves have collapsed from 60 billion cubic meters in 2020 to under 4 billion today.
Costly Reversals and Hard Choices
In response, the government has taken drastic steps. It has halved the area allowed for river-irrigated wheat, mandated expensive modern irrigation systems to replace wasteful flood methods, and banned water-intensive rice cultivation entirely.
“Both phases require modern irrigation,” said Mahdi Dhamad Al-Qaisi, an adviser to the agriculture minister, outlining a pivot to desert farming using groundwater. But this stopgap is risky and expensive.
“If water extraction continues without scientific study, groundwater reserves will decline,” warned Ammar Abdul-Khaliq, head of southern Iraq’s Wells and Groundwater Authority, noting aquifers in Basra have already dropped by several meters.
Human and Economic Toll
The fallout extends beyond crop statistics. The FAO estimates 170,000 people have already been displaced from rural areas due to water scarcity. Al-Fatlawi laid off 8 of his 10 workers.
“This is not a matter of only food security,” said El Hajj Hassan. “It’s worse when we look at it from the perspective of livelihoods.”
With domestic production crashing, analysts predict a swift return to larger imports, exposing Iraq to global market volatility and straining the budget. The FAO preliminarily forecasts a need for 2.4 million tons of wheat imports next year.
“Iraq’s water and food security crisis is no longer just an environmental problem; it has immediate economic and security spillovers,” said water expert Harry Istepanian.
The drought has not only parched fields but also washed away years of precarious progress, leaving Iraq’s future food supply hanging in the balance.
