Iran wants talks with the US to stabilise before inviting regional nations to join, as Trump sends mixed messages.
Tehran, Iran – In Tehran, the question is no longer whether diplomacy is under way, but whether it can move fast enough to stay ahead of escalation.
An Iranian official told media that Oman has been confirmed as the venue for the next round of Iran-United States talks, scheduled later this week.
But the official confirmed that other regional nations would not be involved in talks at the moment, despite proposals to also include them in the negotiations.
Iran’s reluctance to involve regional countries in talks for now stems not from a desire to be exclusionary, but a worry that more players in the room could “risk turning the process into a political display instead of a focused negotiation”, the official said.
Instead, Iran wants the talks format with the US to stabilise first, the official added.
Regional mediators involved in the process have a different view: They see their role not as facilitators of talks at this stage, but as potential guarantors of any future settlement. These are, after all, countries whose own stability is directly affected by the crisis between the US and Iran.
This marks a clear break from the 2015 nuclear agreement, which was built around a transactional arms control logic. In 2026, the tensions are fully of a military nature. Regional actors are no longer peripheral observers. They have a direct strategic interest in containment, de-escalation, and preventing a spillover.
The timing reflects that shift. Over the past few days, Iran and regional nations have intensified their diplomacy. Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, travelled to Moscow on June 30 for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held consultations in Istanbul last Friday.
Building on those meetings, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani visited Tehran over the weekend. Shortly afterwards, Larijani publicly stated that a structured negotiating framework was beginning to take shape.
According to multiple sources, what is now being prepared is not a partial or interim arrangement, but a roadmap towardsa comprehensive agreement.
Washington, however, is keeping ambiguity in play. US President Donald Trump told Fox News this week: “Iran is talking to us, and we’ll see whether we can do something, otherwise we’ll see what happens.” The message combined diplomatic engagement with pressure, preserving uncertainty as leverage.
Does this mean the risk of war has disappeared? No. But it has receded – if only for the moment.
Even confidence-building measures, such as transferring or downblending Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, do not resolve the core disputes. Major issues remain unresolved, most notably Iran’s ballistic missile programme and the broader question of its regional deterrence.
This is where the real negotiation lies. The US no longer appears interested in a deal that merely manages risk. Iran, for its part, does not want an agreement tied to a single presidency or vulnerable to reversal. What both sides are now probing is whether structural concessions can be exchanged for structural guarantees. Everything else – formats, venues, participation – is secondary.
For now, diplomacy is moving, war is deferred, and the window remains open. Whether it stays that way will depend on whether substance follows structure.
