With only 24 days of supply left and shipping costs soaring due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict, Filipino households face a P1,500 price tag for 11-kg LPG cylinders starting April 1.
MANILA — Just as Filipino consumers were grappling with record-high fuel prices, another essential commodity is about to become significantly more expensive. Industry insiders warn that liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices will spike by P385 to P440 per 11-kilogram cylinder starting April 1, driven by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war and its chokehold on global energy supply chains.
The impending increase marks the latest blow to household budgets across the Philippines, where nearly half of all families rely on LPG for daily cooking.
Soaring Shipping Costs and Contract Prices
Arnel Ty, founder of the LPG Marketers Association, attributed the sharp price hike to two primary factors:
- Shipping Costs: Freight rates from the Gulf region have skyrocketed due to the closure of key maritime routes, adding approximately P30 per kilogram.
- Contract Prices: Higher international LPG contract prices, a direct consequence of the conflict, will contribute an additional P5 per kilogram.
Ty predicted that a standard 11-kilogram LPG cylinder could soon reach P1,500 (approximately Dh93). Since the war began on February 28, prices for diesel, petrol, and kerosene have already increased nearly threefold.
“It is the turn of cooking gas prices to significantly ‘shoot up’ in the Philippines next week as the US-Israel-Iran war shows no sign of de-escalation,” Ty said.
Government Hands-Tied by Deregulation Law
At a Senate hearing earlier this week, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin acknowledged the government’s limited ability to intervene. Under the Philippines’ oil industry deregulation law, regulators can do little more than monitor the situation.
“One of our major problems now is LPG,” Garin told legislators. “So, now, we’re starting to go around the restaurants and beverages (stores) because, maybe, we can lower the consumption for a bit until we get the supply coming in.”
Her remarks underscore the administration’s constrained position as it balances market forces with the need to protect consumers from runaway prices.
Supply Crunch: Only 24 Days of Inventory
The price hike is compounded by dwindling supplies. According to the Department of Energy’s (DOE) March 20 inventory report, LPG currently has the lowest stock levels among all fuel products in the country, with reserves sufficient for only 24 days.
The supply crunch is particularly alarming given the Philippines’ heavy reliance on LPG:
- Household Usage: Approximately 40% to 50% of Filipino households—around 8 million families—use LPG as their primary cooking fuel.
- Total Consumption: The residential and commercial sectors together account for over 89% of national LPG demand.
Import Dependence Exposes Vulnerability
While the Philippines maintains some domestic LPG production, it remains heavily dependent on imports to meet its requirements. The country sources its LPG from Gulf nations including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar—all of which are directly affected by the ongoing conflict.
The disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, has made the supply chain increasingly precarious. With no immediate end to hostilities in sight, industry analysts warn that further price increases may be inevitable.
What Lies Ahead?
As the April 1 price adjustment approaches, Filipino households face difficult choices. For millions of families, cooking gas is not a luxury but a daily necessity. With supply stocks critically low and global markets in turmoil, consumers are bracing for a prolonged period of elevated energy costs.
Energy Secretary Garin’s appeal to restaurants and commercial establishments to temporarily reduce consumption reflects the severity of the situation. Whether such measures can ease the strain on household supplies remains to be seen.
For now, the Philippines—like many nations dependent on Gulf energy imports—finds itself caught in the crossfire of a conflict far beyond its shores, with its most vulnerable citizens paying the price.
