Narrative war: Who killed thousands during Iran’s nationwide protests?

Tehran, Iran – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has acknowledged that “several thousands” of Iranians have been killed since protests started in late December among shopkeepers in downtown Tehran, before gradually spreading to big and small cities.

That confirmation is unusual because Khamenei has typically avoided commenting on death tolls during previous protests in Iran over the years.

But there are stark contrasts in the narratives provided by the Iranian state, foreign-based opposition, and United States President Donald Trump over exactly what has happened during the unrest, and what could be coming next.

What do we know for certain?

The protests started over economic grievances in business and trade districts of the capital city on December 28, and morphed into nationwide expressions of anger and frustration at the political establishment over the days that followed.

The nights of January 8 and January 9 were by far the deadliest, according to state officials and media, as well as foreign-based outlets and eyewitness accounts on the ground.

Abbas Masjedi Arani, the head of Iran’s medical examiner authority, told state media that many of the casualties were shot in the chest or the head from close range or from rooftops with the aim of inflicting mortal wounds, while others were stabbed to death.

State outlets said most protesters were young Iranians, many in their 20s.

Iranian authorities have fully cut off access on the night of January 8, as well as mobile communications, so it was not even possible to call rescue services in cases of emergency.

The unprecedented internet blackout began to gradually scale back on Sunday after nearly two weeks, but most of the country’s 90-million-strong population remain in limbo amid uncertainty over what the future could hold.

Local calls, SMS text messages and outgoing international phone calls have been restored over recent days. A local intranet that offers some limited services is operational.

The protests on the streets have now largely died down, with thousands of heavily armed security forces setting up patrols and checkpoints across the country, especially at flashpoints like the Grand Bazaar in Tehran.

The distribution of videos of the protests outside of Iran has been rare amid the digital blackout, with only a minority of Iranians able to leave the country or connect to Starlink satellite internet that bypasses the government’s internet restrictions.

What does the state say?

Iranian officials, from political to military and judicial leaders, have emphasised on a daily basis that the US and Israel have been behind the protests, accusing the foreign powers of arming and funding the opposition.

Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, said that Trump was a “criminal” for directly involving himself in the unrest numerous times.

According to Iranian government, armed and trained “terrorists”, not state forces, were directly responsible for the killings of thousands during the protests. They claim that people acting on behalf of the US and Israel shot and stabbed people to derail peaceful demonstrations.

Judiciary officials have stressed that those who took part in “riots” will face swift punishments without any mercy shown. The Supreme Court and the general prosecutor’s office announced on Sunday that they had formed a joint workgroup to expedite protest-related cases.

What are foreign-based monitors saying?

Foreign-based monitors and Iranians abroad who are opposed to the Iranian establishment maintain that state forces killed protesters in huge numbers.

The latest figures by the widely-cited Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which is based in the US, say more than 3,300 deaths have been confirmed, and over 4,300 others are being investigated.

The organisation also says 2,107 people have been severely wounded, and more than 24,000 arrested.

The Reuters news agency on Sunday cited an unnamed Iranian official in the region as saying at least 5,000 people have been killed, including about 500 security personnel. Most deaths were reportedly recorded in the Kurdish-majority areas of Iran in the northwest.

media is unable to independently verify these figures.

Foreign-based outlets have also reported that Iranian authorities demand so-called “bullet money” from the families of protesters killed by security forces in order to allow their burial, or demand that families sign documents saying they were members of the Basij paramilitary force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and not protesters. Iranian officials have rejected both claims.

What are the US and Israel saying?

US and Israeli officials have been openly touting the potential for toppling the theocratic leadership in Tehran over recent months, including during the 12-day war in June.

At the height of the protests, Trump urged Iranians to remain in the streets, alleging “help is on the way”, before expressing “great respect” for the Iranian leadership based on a claim that planned executions for more than 800 political prisoners were halted.

The US president “speaks a lot of nonsense”, Tehran prosecutor Ali Salehi said on Saturday in reaction to the claim, adding that “our response will be deterring and quick”.

But Trump has not stopped his comments, and on Saturday called for the end of Khamenei’s 37-year rule and branded the Iranian leader a “sick man”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refrained from directly commenting on the protests. Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that Netanyahu ordered his officials to stop giving interviews on the subject after Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu said last week that Israeli operatives are active in Iran “right now” as they were during the 12-day war.