Somaliland recognition: Israel’s foothold in the Horn of Africa

When Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited Somaliland on Tuesday, he became the first Israeli official to visit the breakaway republic since his country established full diplomatic relations with it in the closing days of last year.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the diplomatic recognition of Somaliland – a breakaway part of Somalia – on December 26. He said that the recognition was in keeping with “the spirit of the Abraham Accords”, referring to the United States-led initiative encouraging a number of Arab countries to normalise relations with Israel in return for diplomatic and financial concessions from the US.

But Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has prompted protests within Somalia and complaints from dozens of countries and organisations, including Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and the African Union.

Meeting with Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi in the Somaliland capital of Hargeisa on Tuesday, Saar told reporters that Israel had not been discouraged by criticism of its decision.

“We hear the attacks, the criticism, the condemnations,” he said. “Nobody will determine for Israel who we recognise and who we maintain diplomatic relations with.”

Hegemon

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland comes after more than two years of its genocidal war on Gaza, and attacks on regional countries, including Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Yemen, and Qatar.

Attacks on Lebanon continue, and there are new indications that Israel may be seeking to launch renewed attacks on Iran, its main regional nemesis.

Israel’s wars appear to be an attempt to portray itself – with US backing – as the regional hegemon, uninterested in compromising with its enemies.

Recognition of Somaliland, despite regional opposition, marks the latest part of that strategy.

And Israel has found a new ally in the Horn of Africa on the back of its decision.

Despite being self-governing for more than 30 years, Somaliland has failed to gain international recognition, despite maintaining its own currency, passport and army.

Recognition has been elusive, meaning that even if there are qualms from some over ties with Israel, many are willing to overlook them in the hope that this decision will pave the path for other countries to follow.

“Clans, militias and corruption have ruined Somalia,” Somali journalist and human rights activist Abdalle Mumin, who was previously imprisoned by his country’s authorities, told media, “At least in Somaliland they have achieved some kind of peace and stability.”

“Many hope that other countries will follow Israel,” Mumin continued.

Why has Israel recognised Somaliland?

Nevertheless, speculation over why Israel chose to recognise Somaliland has mounted since Netanyahu’s announcement, with analysts pointing to its strategic location at the crossroads between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Somaliland’s port of Berbera lies close to some of the world’s busiest maritime routes, which have come under attack over the past two years from Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement, a sworn enemy of Israel.

These were all factors in Israel’s recognition, former Israeli peace negotiator Daniel Levy said, acknowledging that the Netanyahu government also benefitted from preserving the suggestion that Somaliland may take in Palestinians forced out of Gaza.

However, Levy suspects Israel’s ambitions may be grander still, including increasing the country’s value to its chief sponsor, the US.

By securing an ally in a strategically important region,

The key dynamic, according to Levy, is momentum.

“If you set out to do something like this, you can’t just stop [at recognition],” he told media. “You have to keep taking steps: more aircraft, more presence, more moves. Once you’ve committed to this kind of game, you need to stay at the table.”

The timing of the move, shortly before Netanyahu’s meeting with US President Donald Trump on December 29, also held significance, Levy said.

Israel was trying to place itself more firmly on what it imagines Washington’s agenda to be, and how it imagines great power competition in the Horn of Africa, particularly with China, which maintains a base in neighbouring Djibouti, might play out.

“We’ve seen before that Israel can put something on the table and the Americans follow later,” he said.

Israel may be implicitly telling the US, “We’re active, and we’re positioned in a way that helps you. Having us there helps you.”

Momentum

According to many observers, the past two years of war have already fundamentally changed the nature of Israel, with the strain of its genocidal war on Gaza, plus news assaults upon its regional neighbours, leaving the country fractured, isolated and with the hard right firmly in the ascendancy.

How enthusiastic the country might be for additional adventures in the Horn of Africa, a region, according to many observers, that remains largely unknown to much of the Israeli public, is unclear.

“Israelis have no idea what or where Somaliland is. It’s a non-issue in Israel,” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York, told media.

“The first time the news came out, it was published alongside maps showing the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and its position across the Gulf of Aden. They had to show people where it was,” he said, dismissing the suggestion that Israel may ever station troops there.

“No, this is Netanyahu doing what he’s been doing ever since October 7, 2023: expanding the theatre of conflict,” he said. “Be that to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen or Iran. Now, it’s Somaliland. There’s no other rationale behind it. It’s about always moving forward.”