What is the Trump plan for Gaza and will it work?

News of a ceasefire plan to bring Israel’s two-year-long campaign of genocide in Gaza to an end has been gaining traction, according to reports, and is expected to feature when United States President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet at the White House on Monday.

Trump’s 21-point plan would end Israel’s war on Gaza, which has killed at least 66,055 people and wounded 168,346 since it began in October 2023. Thousands more are believed to be dead and trapped under the rubble.

The plan also reportedly relies heavily on a proposal by former United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair published in full on Sunday by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which looks to remove Hamas from Gaza and for the US to work with Arab and international partners to install “a temporary international stabilization force”.

Here’s what you need to know about the ceasefire plan:

What does Trump’s 21-point plan say about ethnic cleansing?

One big point seems to be that Trump has eased up on his rhetoric of ethnically cleansing Gaza.

Point 12 of the plan, according to The Times of Israel, says: “No one will be forced to leave Gaza, but those who choose to leave will be allowed to return. Moreover, Gazans will be encouraged to remain in the Strip and offered an opportunity to build a better future there.”

This is a big departure from Trump’s stance in February when he said the US would “take over” and “own” Gaza and push out its people to make way for a glitzy redevelopment plan that shocked the world.

What about Hamas?

Similar to previous plans and Blair’s proposal, Hamas would have no role in Gaza going forward under this plan although its members would be granted amnesty if they commit to “peaceful coexistence” while those who wish to leave Gaza would be granted safe passage to receiving countries.

The plan says: “Gaza will be administered by a temporary, transitional government of Palestinian technocrats who will be responsible for providing day-to-day services for the people of the Strip.

“The committee will be supervised by a new international body established by the US in consultation with Arab and European partners. It will establish a framework for funding the redevelopment of Gaza until the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program.”

This temporary government would likely be called the Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA) and have a $90m management budget in its first year, bumped to $133.5m and $164m in the two years after that. That’s before reconstruction and humanitarian aid figures are included too.

However, there is no defined timeline for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take over. Israel has been systematically trying to undermine the PA, which has limited control of parts of the occupied West Bank, and Israel has previously said it would object to it being involved in Gaza.

Will the Trump plan end the Israel-imposed famine?

The plan also mentions aid returning to Gaza at the levels agreed upon in January, which is about 600 trucks of aid per day.

The aid will be distributed by the United Nations, Red Crescent and other organisations not associated with either Israel or Hamas.

Aid is now distributed by the GHF, and it’s unclear what the status of the foundation would be, considering it is technically a US organisation despite being “the brainchild of Israelis linked to the government”, according to The Times of Israel.

Wait, why is a former British PM involved?

For one, Blair has experience partnering with the US to install foreign governments in Arab states.

Under Trump’s plan, the 72-year-old Blair, who was the UK prime minister from 1997 to 2007, could be appointed head of GITA, the organisation that would sideline the PA and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Blair has been working for months with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who commissioned the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change to come up with a post-war plan, according to The Times of Israel. Kushner was a senior adviser to Trump during his first term and has recently been advising Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff on a post-war Gaza.

Could the plan actually end the war?

Let’s see.

Trump presented the plan to leaders from Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and the United Arab Emirates on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York last week, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

As is the case with the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between some Arab countries and Israel, there’s been little input from the Palestinians.

Despite announcements that Hamas has accepted the Trump ceasefire proposal, the group said it has yet to receive anything from Trump.

Then there is the issue of Netanyahu, who told Fox News that Israel is working with Washington to “make [the plan] a go”, but he has foiled past agreements by throwing in last-minute changes.

Analysts said it has become clear that Netanyahu makes these changes and unacceptable demands to scupper deals while trying to lay the blame on Hamas, so Israel can keep bombing Gaza. His allies in Israel’s government have said they would collapse his governing coalition if Netanyahu ends the war.

For Netanyahu to agree to end the war, Trump would need to apply serious pressure on the evasive Israeli leader.

In the meantime, Israel is continuing its attacks across the Gaza Strip with a special focus on Gaza City. At least 50 Palestinians, including five aid seekers, were killed and another 184 were injured in Israeli attacks across the Gaza Strip in the past day, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza.