The GCC is on the cusp of a decades-long consumer boom, with its young, expanding and increasingly affluent population driving a wave of spending that will eclipse many advanced economies.
New research by Oxford Economics forecasts that the region’s consumer sector will outperform global peers for years to come, powered by robust demographics, surging labour participation and sustained migration flows that are fuelling household income and demand across all segments.
Oxford Economics’ newly-appointed Head of GCC Macroeconomic Analysis, Azad Zangana, emphasises that youthful populations, high migration and increasing labour participation will fuel both per-capita and aggregate consumption across the region.
Zangana notes that one of the key pillars of the outlook is the age-profile shift in earnings and spending: as populations move into mid-career and higher‐income brackets, household payment capacity rises, and consumption per-capita accelerates accordingly.
In the GCC’s case the outlook is especially favourable. Public data show that the region’s average age in 2024 stood at 30.7 years, the youngest among comparable high-income blocs. By contrast, the United States averaged 38.3 years and China 39.6 years. The projection that the GCC’s average age will increase by only 1.8 years between 2024 and 2050 —versus 7.2 years in the OECD area and 12.6 years in China — illustrates the size of the head-start into the prime-earning cohort that the region enjoys.
Alongside the demographic edge, three structural enablers underpin the consumer-spending trajectory: a high rate of inward migration adding to the working-age population, rising labour participation (notably female participation, though with catch-up still ahead), and enhanced worker quality through improved educational attainment. In sum, the GCC is less burdened by age-dependency pressures than many advanced economies, freeing up labour-income growth and household-spending capacity rather than allocating it to pension or healthcare obligations.
The macro backdrop supports this narrative. The World Bank forecasts growth for the region at 3.2 per cent in 2025, lifting to about 4.5 per cent in 2026, with non-oil activity powered by private consumption and investment. Real consumer-spending growth is one of the strongest links in this chain: for example, in the UAE real consumer spending is expected to rise by around 5 per cent in 2024, one of the highest rates globally.
The retail sector is also showing solid expansion, with the GCC retail market projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 4.6 per cent through 2028 and to exceed $390 billion by that year. In particular, Saudi Arabia and the UAE currently account for around three-quarters of GCC retail sales and are set to expand share further. Food retail alone was valued at roughly $127.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to hit about $162 billion by 2028.
These numbers underscore the global shift: as advanced economies struggle with stagnant or declining working-age populations and higher old-age dependency ratios, the GCC is surfing a generational wave of earning-age growth. In 2024 the region’s age-dependency ratio (dependents per 100 working-age persons) was about 32.1, with projections rising only to 35.1 by 2050 — by contrast, many high-income countries are already above 50 or 60. That means less drag from rising pension and healthcare burdens and more disposable income available for goods, services, entertainment and lifestyle upgrades.
From the supply side, high migration levels, particularly of working age, bolster the labour pool and amplify aggregate demand. Migrant workers typically remit part of their earnings but also contribute to spending on housing, travel, transportation and leisure. Meanwhile nationals and longer-tenured expatriates contribute to an evolving consumption profile with greater spending on travel, dining, e-commerce and luxury goods. On the participation frontier, rising female workforce involvement contributes to broadening income and household-spending base — amplifying the consumption engine.
Despite these favourable tailwinds, the consumer-sector story is far from generic. The nature of spending is evolving: non-food retail (luxury, lifestyle, digital commerce) is gaining traction alongside staples. Luxury and personal-care markets in the region are already defying global slowdowns. And the GCC’s rising wealth (GDP per capita for the region at around $70,300 in 2023) and population growth (CAGR about 1.5 per cent to reach over 62.5 million by 2028) underpin premium-segment spending.
What this translates into for consumer investors and brands is a region increasingly oriented toward growth segments. Retailers, e-commerce platforms, lifestyle-brands and digital-commerce players stand to gain from a structural shift rather than cyclical blips. Household balance sheets look healthy; consumer confidence in the UAE, for example, shows roughly 60 per cent of residents expect improvement in their finances (versus 37 per cent globally), while about 42 per cent say they plan to increase spending (versus 22 per cent globally).
For policy-makers and analysts the message is clear: the GCC’s future lies not just in hydrocarbons but in human capital, consumption growth and domestic servicing of an expanding, youthful population. The combination of favorable age structure, accelerating incomes, rising labour participation and structural retail expansion creates a near-unique consumer-economy investment case — one characterised by the ability to consume rather than merely survive. The coming decades may well see the region’s consumer sector not just growing faster but maintaining that edge — generating sustained out-performance of its advanced-economy peers.
In a world where many countries are battling ageing populations, sluggish spending and rising dependency burdens, the GCC is offering a different script: youth, income growth and consumption unleashed.
