Author: Dr Issac PJ

The global oil market could swing from one of the worst supply shocks in decades to a substantial surplus next year as Gulf crude production recovers following the US-Iran peace agreement, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.  In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based agency said the oil supply disruption triggered by the Iran conflict has not only curtailed production but also weakened global demand, setting the stage for a potentially dramatic market reversal in 2027.  The IEA now forecasts global oil supply to rise by around 8 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, while demand…

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the latest US-Iran ceasefire agreement may have removed one of the biggest threats to global energy markets. Still, economists warn that Gulf economies are unlikely to stage a rapid recovery, as lingering investor caution, disrupted trade flows, and weaker oil revenues continue to weigh on growth.Oxford Economics has sharply downgraded its outlook for the GCC, projecting the region’s aggregate real GDP to contract by 2.4 per cent in 2026, compared with an earlier forecast of a 1.2 per cent decline.The downgrade reflects the deeper-than-expected impact of months of conflict-related disruptions that curtailed…

For millions of Indians living and working in the Gulf, investing back home is about to become significantly easier. In a major reform aimed at attracting a larger share of overseas Indian wealth, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has simplified investment and repatriation rules, raised stock market investment limits and expanded access to Indian equities for individuals residing outside the country.The changes are particularly relevant for Gulf-based Non-Resident Indians (NRIs), who account for a substantial portion of the more than $125 billion India receives annually in remittances. By introducing a dedicated repatriable rupee account and streamlining the movement of…

For non-resident Indians, investing in India has just become easier, with new Central Bank rules streamlining fund flows, raising investment limits, and simplifying repatriation.1. What is the biggest change?You can now use a single designated repatriable rupee account to:Invest in Indian shares and other eligible assets.Receive sale proceeds.Reinvest funds.Transfer money back overseas after paying taxes.Benefit: Less paperwork and fewer bank-account complications.2. Can I bring my money back easily?Yes.After selling investments and paying applicable taxes:Money can remain in the designated account for reinvestment, orBe remitted abroad.Benefit: Greater liquidity and flexibility.3. Have investment limits changed?Yes.Individual limit increased from 5 per cent to…

Dubai’s mortgage market is showing remarkable resilience in 2026, with competitive borrowing costs, stable lending rules and growing buyer confidence driving demand despite a backdrop of regional geopolitical uncertainty.Industry executives say the most notable trend this year is the growing shift towards fixed-rate mortgages as homebuyers seek to secure lower borrowing costs while protecting themselves against future interest-rate volatility.According to Betterhomes’ mortgage arm, Lomond, fixed-rate mortgage products are currently offering some of the most attractive financing terms seen in recent years, making them increasingly popular among both first-time buyers and investors.Major UAE banks are offering one-year fixed rates from 3.75…

Abu Dhabi is embarking on one of the Gulf’s most ambitious public-private partnership (PPP) programmes, unveiling a Dh55 billion infrastructure pipeline that analysts say could fundamentally reshape how large-scale projects are financed and delivered across the emirate.  The initiative, announced by the Abu Dhabi Investment Office (ADIO) and Abu Dhabi Projects and Infrastructure Centre (ADPIC), comprises 24 projects scheduled for procurement between 2026 and 2027 across transport, social and core infrastructure sectors. While the programme’s scale is significant, experts argue its real importance lies in what it represents: a strategic shift from state-funded infrastructure development towards a model that mobilises…

The UAE’s tax revenues recorded another year of strong growth in 2025, highlighting the increasing maturity of the country’s fiscal framework and the expanding role of non-oil revenue streams in supporting long-term economic sustainability.  According to the Ministry of Finance, total revenues collected from Value Added Tax (VAT) and Excise Tax and distributed to federal and local governments exceeded Dh46 billion in 2025, compared with approximately Dh41 billion in 2024, marking a robust 15 per cent year-on-year increase.  The sharp rise reflects a combination of stronger economic activity, rising consumer spending, growing business transactions, enhanced tax compliance and continued improvements…

Gold may have retreated from its recent record highs following the breakthrough US-Iran peace agreement, but analysts say the precious metal’s long-term rally remains firmly intact as central banks accelerate purchases and investors continue to seek protection against an increasingly uncertain economic and geopolitical landscape.The easing of tensions between Washington and Tehran has removed one of the most immediate triggers for safe-haven buying, prompting a pullback in gold prices after months of conflict-driven gains.Spot gold, which surged above $4,700 an ounce during the height of the Middle East crisis, has eased back towards the $4,300-$4,500 range as fears of a…

The US-Iran agreement has removed a key trigger for a global recession by easing concerns over oil supplies and restoring confidence in energy markets.While the accord has helped calm investors and lower risk premiums, analysts warn it is not a silver bullet for an economy still grappling with slowing growth and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.Markets responded enthusiastically to the announcement, with Brent crude prices falling sharply as traders scaled back expectations of prolonged supply disruptions. Global equities advanced and measures of market volatility declined as investors judged that the risk of a major energy crisis had receded.The Strait of Hormuz, through…

Dubai’s luxury villa market is scaling new heights as deep-pocketed residents and global high-net-worth individuals continue to drive demand for ultra-premium homes, pushing rental values and transaction volumes into record territory despite wider global economic uncertainty.  A new market analysis by fäm Properties shows that Dubai’s luxury villa rental sector recorded robust growth during the first five months of 2026, underlining the emirate’s growing status as one of the world’s most sought-after destinations for affluent families, entrepreneurs and investors. According to the report, the annualised value of new villa rental contracts above Dh1 million climbed 27 per cent year-on-year to Dh509…