India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028 and to double its gross domestic product (GDP) to $10.6 trillion by 2035, contributing 20 per cent of total global growth over the next decade, according to a new Morgan Stanley report.
The bullish projection reinforces India’s status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with a combination of decentralised state-level growth, robust domestic demand, and structural policy reforms propelling its upward trajectory.
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A standout theme in Morgan Stanley’s forecast is the rise of states as key economic engines. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka are expected to be the first Indian states to each achieve a $1 trillion economy. Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Telangana are currently the top-performing states by GDP, while others like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh have significantly climbed economic rankings over the past five years. This shift reflects the success of India’s ‘competitive federalism’, where states are increasingly responsible for policy innovation, industrialisation, and urbanisation.
The report highlights how India’s decentralised growth model is underpinned by sub-national governance, with states implementing agile policies and infrastructure initiatives tailored to their local economies. This trend is driving industrial diversification, improving labour markets, and attracting foreign and domestic investments.
Morgan Stanley also expects India to contribute 20 per cent of total global growth over the next decade. As multinationals seek alternatives to China in their supply chains, India is emerging as a compelling manufacturing destination. This shift is bolstered by the government’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, which are beginning to show results in the form of rising exports, industrial capacity utilisation, and new global partnerships in electronics, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.
India’s capital markets are also a major growth story. According to Bloomberg data, Indian benchmark indices have outperformed most emerging markets over the past three years, driven by resilient corporate earnings, strong domestic consumption, and continued infrastructure spending. Foreign portfolio investments have remained robust, and market confidence has been further reinforced by the stability of the financial system and policy continuity.
According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), India’s GDP is forecast to grow 6.5 per cent in 2025 and 6.7 per cent in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand, a normal monsoon, and expected monetary easing. Inflation is also moderating, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping to 2.1 per cent in June 2025 — the lowest in 77 months — as food inflation turned negative. ADB projects inflation to remain within the Reserve Bank of India’s target range at 3.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.0 per cent in 2026.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) echoes these sentiments, projecting India’s real GDP growth to range between 6.4 and 6.7 per cent this fiscal year. This reinforces India’s position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, even as global growth slows and other developing Asian economies face headwinds from trade policy shifts and weakened exports.
While the broader Asia-Pacific region grapples with uncertainties — such as escalating US tariffs, slowing Chinese growth, and geopolitical tensions — India appears better insulated. ADB’s Chief Economist Albert Park noted that although Asia faces a weakening external environment, economies that maintain open trade and strong investment fundamentals can sustain growth momentum — India being a prime example.
Domestic indicators show a mixed short-term picture. ICRA estimates India’s GDP growth in the first quarter of FY26 to range between 6.1 and 6.5 per cent, down from 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter. The slowdown is attributed to excessive rainfall affecting coal production and power generation in June. Rating agency ICRA’s Business Activity Monitor showed a 5.9 per cent year-on-year rise in June, slightly easing from 6.4 per cent in May. However, GST e-way bill generation and railway freight remained robust.
The core sector growth moderated to 1.7 per cent in June, with weak performance in crude oil, refinery products, and electricity. Passenger vehicle and two-wheeler sales also slowed, alongside some softening in rural and urban labour market indicators. However, financial conditions have eased across markets, supported by policy rate cuts and improved liquidity.
Despite short-term fluctuations, ICRA maintains a full-year GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent for FY26, assuming a well-distributed monsoon, stable crude oil prices around $70 per barrel, and continued rural demand. Risks remain, particularly from global economic volatility, energy market fluctuations, and escalating trade tensions.
issacjohn@khaleejtimes.comis Managing Editor at media and has over 45 years of experience in top-tier newspapers across UAE. A seasoned business writer and economic analyst, he brings unmatched insight into the geopolitics and geoeconomics shaping the Gulf and India.
