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The sudden escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and the temporary closure of key air corridors have dealt a sharp blow to the Gulf’s thriving tourism and aviation sectors, halting flights across some of the world’s busiest global transit hubs and leaving thousands of travellers stranded.
Industry analysts say the region — particularly the UAE and Dubai — has repeatedly demonstrated a remarkable ability to rebound from crises, suggesting the tourism downturn could prove temporary once hostilities subside.
The conflict triggered widespread disruption across the Middle East aviation network, forcing airlines to suspend services and cancel thousands of flights. Major airports including Dubai International (DXB), Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport and Doha’s Hamad International Airport were forced to temporarily halt or limit operations as airspace closures and security concerns disrupted global travel routes.
According to Tourism Economics, more than 5,000 flights were cancelled in the first two days of the conflict, highlighting the vulnerability of the Middle East’s aviation corridors. The region’s airports account for roughly 14 per cent of global international transit traffic, making them a crucial link between Europe, Asia, and Africa.
The immediate fallout has been felt across the tourism ecosystem — from airlines and hotels to tour operators and event organisers. Hotels in major Gulf cities reported cancellations from international tourists even as they accommodated stranded passengers and airline crews.
Several international tour operators also paused Middle East itineraries due to flight disruptions and travel advisories.
Two scenarios
Tourism Economics has modelled two possible recovery scenarios depending on the duration of the conflict.
In an “early resolution” scenario lasting between one and three weeks, inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline about 11 per cent in 2026 compared with earlier forecasts, representing roughly 23 million fewer visitors and an estimated $34 billion loss in tourism spending.
A prolonged conflict lasting up to two months could lead to deeper losses, with arrivals dropping as much as 27 per cent year on year and visitor spending declining by about $56 billion.
Because of their reliance on air travel and their role as regional tourism hubs, the GCC countries are likely to see the largest absolute decline in visitor numbers. However, analysts say the region’s strong infrastructure, diversified tourism offerings and global connectivity should allow it to recover relatively quickly once travel confidence returns.
Before the outbreak of hostilities, the Gulf’s tourism sector had been enjoying one of its strongest growth cycles. According to the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC-Stat), international tourism revenues across the GCC reached $120.2 billion in 2024, representing a 39.6 per cent increase compared with 2019 and an 8.9 per cent rise from 2023.
International visitor arrivals climbed to 72.2 million in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by more than 51 per cent and lifting the GCC’s share of global tourism to 5.2 per cent. The growth has been fuelled by expanded airline connectivity, liberalised visa policies, large-scale tourism investments and the diversification of tourism experiences across the region.
The UAE has been at the centre of this expansion, with Dubai emerging as the region’s most resilient tourism hub thanks to its world-class aviation network, business-friendly policies and strong global brand.
Industry experts say Dubai’s unmatched air connectivity could prove crucial in driving a swift recovery once airspace restrictions are lifted. Dubai International Airport has consistently ranked as the world’s busiest airport for international passengers, while Emirates airline operates one of the largest global long-haul networks.
Resilient sector
The emirate’s tourism sector has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to rebound from global shocks. Following the Covid-19 pandemic, Dubai restored visitor numbers to record levels within two years through aggressive marketing campaigns, rapid reopening policies and major global events.
Global tourism bodies say the region’s recent performance highlights its resilience. UN Tourism has noted that the Middle East was the fastest-recovering tourism region globally following the pandemic, surpassing pre-crisis visitor levels earlier than any other region.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has also underscored the UAE’s exceptional recovery trajectory. WTTC president and CEO Julia Simpson said the country’s tourism sector had “soared to new heights,” supported by world-class infrastructure and its role as a global aviation gateway.
“Tourism is often a powerful driver of recovery after conflict or crises,” Simpson said, adding that destinations with strong connectivity and infrastructure typically rebound faster once stability returns.
Airline executives share a similar view. Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary recently said that although travel demand to the Gulf could weaken in the short term, tourism flows would eventually recover as governments and airlines stimulate demand through promotional fares and marketing campaigns once stability returns.
How quickly that rebound occurs will depend largely on the duration of the conflict and the speed with which airlines can restore operations. If hostilities end within weeks and airspace restrictions are lifted quickly, analysts believe visitor demand could begin recovering within months.
Dubai’s aviation-led tourism model may allow it to lead the recovery. The emirate’s hub-and-spoke airline network, large inventory of hotels and global event calendar provide powerful tools to stimulate travel demand once flights resume.
Beyond the immediate crisis, the region’s long-term tourism ambitions remain intact. Saudi Arabia continues to invest heavily in its Vision 2030 tourism projects, Qatar is expanding its post-World Cup tourism infrastructure, and the UAE is pushing forward with large-scale hospitality, cruise and entertainment developments.
Analysts argue that if past crises are any guide, the region — led by Dubai’s unmatched connectivity and infrastructure — could once again demonstrate that its tourism sector is capable of bouncing back faster than many global destinations once the skies reopen.
