Dubai’s residential rental market is poised to stabilise through 2026 as a wave of new supply begins to moderate price growth after several years of steep increases, according to fresh data from Allsopp & Allsopp and other industry analysts.
Latest figures show the market entering a more balanced phase, with demand remaining robust but rental inflation easing across several key segments, particularly apartments. Industry experts say the shift signals a maturing property cycle rather than a downturn, with rents expected to plateau in many communities as more units are handed over.
Data from Allsopp & Allsopp for January revealed a 48 per cent surge in rental transaction volumes alongside a 5 per cent rise in total rental value, indicating that while tenant activity remains strong, rental growth is slowing compared with previous years. The moderation reflects growing supply and increased tenant choice across the emirate.
Year-on-year figures from the Dubai Land Department point to further rebalancing. Rental renewals declined by 15 per cent in volume and 9 per cent in value, while new contracts slipped by 3 per cent in volume and 4 per cent in value, suggesting that tenants are negotiating more actively and exploring alternative options as new inventory enters the market.
Average lettings prices across apartments, villas and townhouses have softened in some locations, with overall rental levels dipping in certain communities. Analysts say this easing follows a period in which Dubai rents rose sharply amid strong population growth, limited supply and rising demand from global professionals and investors relocating to the emirate.
“After several years of consistent rental growth, we’re now seeing the market move into a phase of stabilisation,” said Lewis Allsopp, chairman of Allsopp & Allsopp. “Demand remains strong, but as more supply comes to market — particularly apartments — the pace of rental increases is slowing. This is a healthy sign that the market is becoming more balanced and sustainable over the long term.”
Supply growth is emerging as a key driver of the shift. In the sales market, nearly 80 per cent of recent off-plan transactions have been apartments, with off-plan deals accounting for 78 per cent of total sales value. As these projects reach completion and enter the leasing market, they are expected to exert downward pressure on apartment rents, especially in mid-market and emerging communities.
Apartment rentals have already recorded a year-on-year dip in both volume and value, and further adjustments are anticipated as additional units are delivered. In contrast, villa and townhouse rents remain relatively resilient due to limited new supply and continued demand from families seeking larger homes and lifestyle communities.
Despite signs of stabilisation, tenant demand remains strong. Allsopp & Allsopp reported a 70 per cent month-on-month increase in listings, a 50 per cent rise in tenant registrations and a 53 per cent jump in property viewings in January, reflecting sustained interest from new residents and relocating professionals. Dubai’s population growth — driven by business expansion, visa reforms and its safe-haven status — continues to underpin rental demand.
According to a recent report by property consultancy CBRE, average residential rents in Dubai rose by around 17 per cent in 2025 but the pace of growth is expected to slow significantly in 2026 as supply increases. “The residential market is transitioning towards a more sustainable trajectory, with rental growth moderating as new completions provide tenants with greater choice,” CBRE noted in its latest outlook.
Knight Frank echoed a similar view, stating that while prime villa and waterfront locations may continue to command premium rents, broader market conditions are shifting towards equilibrium. “Dubai’s strong population growth and economic expansion will continue to support rental demand, but the scale of new supply scheduled for delivery over the next two years is likely to temper rental inflation,” the consultancy said in a recent research note.
Market watchers say Dubai’s rental market is therefore entering a phase of recalibration rather than contraction. With demand still supported by economic growth, job creation and continued inflows of global talent, analysts expect rents to stabilise across much of the market through 2026, creating a more sustainable environment for both tenants and landlords.
