Getty ImagesGermany is holding its breath this weekend as there is a seismic election in the country’s east.
The Alternative für Deutschland party is aiming to secure a majority in the regional parliament of Saxony-Anhalt.
An outright win would mark the first time a far-right party has held state-level power in the nation’s post-war era.
For the AfD’s opponents, this is a point of serious peril. But the party sees it as a stepping stone towards its dreams of nationwide power.
The result could also spell fresh trouble for embattled conservative (CDU) Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as rumours persist about whether he can see out his term in office.
Booed during recent public appearances, Merz is hardly seen as an electoral asset.
Perhaps the chancellor regrets a pledge to halt the rise of the far right, given that the exact opposite has happened.
By contrast, the charismatic AfD lead candidate in the state – Ulrich Siegmund – appears to have enjoyed dominating discussion and media coverage.
Dubbed “Germany’s Most Dangerous Man” by Der Spiegel magazine, he has brushed off reports that people previously in the neo-Nazi scene are among those to hold influential roles around him.
The 35-year-old can often be seen, including in his own many social media posts, amongst adoring crowds or happily riding a retro East German scooter.
A lingering nostalgia for the past, alongside an acute dissatisfaction with the present, has fed the party’s popularity in its eastern strongholds.
Voters voice frustration with immigration, public safety, Germany’s struggling economy, high energy costs and aid being sent abroad to countries like Ukraine.
Some people I have spoken to passionately believe that the AfD is offering a real chance for radical change – and say Ulrich Siegmund has given them hope.
Other supporters are less certain, but say they have lost faith with mainstream parties that have dominated politics for decades.
An AfD lawmaker once told me that if they got a shot at regional government, then people would see the “sky won’t fall in”.
Some of the movement’s detractors may disagree. Its plans, for Saxony-Anhalt, are highly controversial within Germany.
ReutersThe party wants to segregate child refugees into special classes: “The refugee children should be given the message that their stay in Germany is only temporary.”
The manifesto claims that “sexual deviations and non-reproductive lifestyles” have been aggressively promoted over “normal family” structures.
LGBT rainbow flags should be banned from being flown at schools, the party argues, while children should be taught less about the Nazis and more about positive aspects of German history.
On immigration, a task-force would be set up as part of plans to detain and deport migrants who no longer have the right to be in the state, while the party also calls for an end to “illegal, culturally alien” mass migration.
The AfD’s pro-Russia sympathies have also sparked claims that it cannot be trusted with sensitive intelligence. When a Russian army mug was spotted in the office of leading AfD figure Hans-Thomas Tillschneider in Saxony-Anhalt, he said it was just a souvenir, and “it’s not our war”.
That was as Berlin, this week, publicly blamed Moscow for a failed drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport. The Kremlin has denied involvement.
ReutersMeanwhile, German security sources have warned that Russian-backed disinformation campaigns, often against AfD rivals, have been escalating – something Moscow’s representatives describe as “anti-Russian hysteria”.
State-level governments hold significant powers over areas including local education, policing and culture, while their delegates sit in the federal government’s second chamber – the Bundesrat.
An AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt would be able to implement changes locally and gain a louder voice on the national stage.
The party remains strongest in the former communist east Germany but it is also leading the polls nationwide.
That is despite warnings that it has morphed from a Eurosceptic party, founded in 2013, into one that flirts with, or attracts, extremist support.
At one AfD rally, we saw a man wearing a T-shirt that read Arisch – the German word for Aryan that the Nazis used to promote their false theories of a master race.
We do not know whether the man was a party supporter, a member or merely an attendee. He would not talk to us.
Saxony-Anhalt is one of several states where the party is officially classed as right-wing extremist.
Domestic intelligence charges the local branch with being infused by a “racist ideology” and anti-constitutional aims.
The AfD, which says it is a conservative, libertarian movement, dismisses these designations as politicised smears and rejects any comparisons with National Socialism.
Ulrich Siegmund has not ruled out getting rid of domestic intelligence (BfV) in the state if the AfD wins a majority.
Other parties won’t go into coalition with the AfD, as part of what is known as the Brandmauer or firewall that keeps the far right from government.
That is why it must seek a parliamentary majority in order to be sure of securing power.
In Saxony-Anhalt, it is no longer about creating cracks in the firewall but rather trying to bypass it altogether.
Pulling that off will likely depend on whether other, smaller parties get enough votes in order to pass a 5% threshold that allows them to enter parliament.
Politics is maths and Germany is no different, even if the maths can be quite convoluted.
But if the AfD does score a decisive victory, then a party that uses anti-establishment rhetoric to grow its support will face a test it has never faced before.
Grievances could still be laid at the door of the federal government in Berlin, but the AfD would no longer solely be able to rail against those in office because it would be in office itself.
Saxony-Anhalt may be a relatively small state, by population, but it is about to host one hell of an election.
