Gold surged past the historic $4,000-an-ounce mark on Tuesday, consolidating its position as the ultimate safe-haven amid a storm of geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and growing fears over the global economic outlook.
The record-breaking rally lifted gold futures to $4,005.80 per ounce, representing a gain of more than 50 per cent this year — its strongest annual run in decades.
The surge comes as the US dollar index has weakened by about 10 per cent, while renewed trade tensions and policy unpredictability under President Donald Trump’s second term continue to rattle financial markets. Trump’s tariff escalations and his attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence have amplified concerns over monetary stability, driving a wave of capital into traditional stores of value such as gold.
This year’s rally has already outpaced several major bull runs in the past century. Gold prices have now climbed nearly 130 per cent from their 2022 correction lows, following a long consolidation after the 2020 pandemic surge.
Bank of America analyst Paul Ciana, however, cautions that the market may be approaching what he calls “uptrend exhaustion.” “The current momentum is extraordinary but maturing,” Ciana wrote in a note to clients. “Technical indicators suggest the metal may be due for a mid-cycle correction similar to prior major bull phases.”
Ciana compared the current rally to the 1970s super-cycle, when gold soared by 1,725 per cent before collapsing nearly 60 per cent, and the 1999–2011 boom, which saw a 640 per cent rise followed by a 38 per cent drop into 2015. If today’s cycle were to mirror the early-2000s rally, gold could eventually test $7,000 per ounce — but he warns that short-term overheating could prompt a pause or retracement toward $3,790–$3,525.
BofA’s technical models show gold trading roughly 21 per cent above its 200-day moving average, a zone historically associated with short-term peaks. The metal also stands 70 per cent above its 200-week average — levels seen only three times in modern history, in 2006, 2008, and 2011, all of which preceded sharp pullbacks. Gold’s seven consecutive weeks of gains further add to the cautionary tone. Ciana noted that in each of the 11 previous instances of such streaks, gold prices were lower a month later, suggesting that a cooling phase may be imminent.
Despite those technical warnings, the fundamental case for gold remains robust. Central banks, led by China, India, and Turkey, have been accumulating bullion at record pace, collectively buying more than 1,000 tonnes in the first nine months of 2025, according to the World Gold Council. This sustained buying has provided a crucial floor for prices, particularly as investors hedge against rising sovereign debt levels and weakening global confidence in fiat currencies.
Gold’s latest breakout also reflects the market’s anxiety over widening geopolitical fractures — from escalating tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine to renewed volatility in oil markets and the yuan’s sharp depreciation. Analysts note that a 10 per cent decline in the dollar typically boosts gold by 7 to 10 per cent, amplifying its appeal among non-US investors.
The prospect of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, following September’s 25-basis-point reduction, has also reignited liquidity flows into commodities. Investors expect lower real yields to persist into 2026, a scenario that has historically supported higher gold valuations.
While traders brace for short-term corrections, the longer-term narrative remains distinctly bullish. With global debt exceeding $320 trillion, real yields under pressure, and geopolitical fragmentation intensifying, analysts see gold’s role as a strategic reserve asset deepening further. As Ciana summed up, “This rally may pause, but the structural forces driving gold are far from over. Even if prices cool temporarily, the metal’s long-term trajectory still points upward.”
