When Vladimir Putin arrived to address Russia’s parliament on Wednesday, a warm welcome was guaranteed.
“The Special Election Operation”, as one Russian newspaper dubbed last month’s legislative vote, has produced a State Duma even more pro-Putin than anything before it.
The ruling party, United Russia, now has more MPs than ever.
It allows the Kremlin to claim it has been handed a huge mandate from the Russian people.
Are there any signs he is prepared to halt what he calls the special military operation? Or should we brace for further escalation in Ukraine and in tensions with Europe?
On Thursday I’ll be watching to see whether Russia’s leader sheds light on his plans during an appearance at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow. Traditionally the president’s speech at this annual foreign policy forum provides insight into Putin’s world view.
Right now, everything points to Putin continuing Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine: despite his country’s huge battlefield losses to date and the damage being done to Russia’s economy.
Putin’s speeches and statements suggest he remains confident that Russia can secure a military victory.
AFP via Getty ImagesJudging by what is being reported in Russian media, Moscow is encouraged by the shortage of air defence missiles in Ukraine, as well as the expectation that Russian strikes this winter will increase pressure on Ukrainians. Kyiv has spoken of its difficulty in shooting down Russia’s ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones, which have been targeting Ukraine every day.
And further afield?
The Kremlin has made no secret of the fact it wants European states to slash their military and financial backing for Ukraine: the kind of support Moscow says is prolonging the war – or, rather, getting in the way of a Russian victory.
To achieve this, Western officials believe Russia has been sending not so subtle signals.
They accuse Moscow of waging an escalating hybrid war on European countries through cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage, and Russian drones violating European airspace. In Germany, a drone carrying an explosive device was found close to Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport.
A covert campaign in the “grey zone”, that space between peace and war.
This week I asked Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, does he admit that his country is waging a hybrid war against European countries?
“Do you mean when we destroy drones and missiles that Britain and continental Europe are supplying Ukraine with, and which are used to attack us?” Lavrov replied.
“If you admit your weapons are being used to strike us and we destroy them, call it whatever you want. But I have no doubt this is a war Europe is waging against us. We’ve been saying so for a long time.”
That, indeed, has been the official Russian stance for some time: that what is happening in Ukraine amounts to a European war on Russia. It is a narrative that skips over the fact that in 2022 it was the Kremlin that launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that Russia continues to wage war there.
How far would Russia go to sever European support for Kyiv?
Is Moscow, for example, actively preparing to initiate military conflict in Europe with a Nato member state? That seems unlikely. After more than four-and-a-half years of war Russia’s army has not yet managed to occupy the whole of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, right next door to Russia.
Fighting Europe may not be the plan, but freaking it out, to reduce support for Kyiv, could well be the intention.
Listen to the messaging.
“If they continue this war, a European war with American help, against Russia, on Ukrainian territory, sooner or later we’ll feel the need to escalate,” warns prominent foreign policy strategist Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council for Foreign and Defence Policy.
“According to my scenarios, the first series of blows will be conventional,” he told me. “But if Europe does not surrender, unfortunately, we will have to go nuclear. There will be little left of some European countries.”
But if Russia went nuclear there would be a response from Europe, and nothing would be left of Russia, I suggest.
“No, there will be no response from Europe,” said Karaganov. “What, Britain will attack Russia with nuclear weapons? I hope you’re not that crazy. I’m sure the Americans are not that crazy.”
I asked him if he agreed the last four-and-a-half years had been disastrous for Russia, in terms of casualties and the worsening security and economic situation.
“We’ve lost a lot of people, yes,” he admitted, “and I criticise my government for not being rough enough. But now we are getting rough enough in Ukraine. We’re doing away with Ukraine as a viable state.”
If “doing away with Ukraine as a viable state” is Moscow’s goal, it is hard to imagine the war ending soon.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to rail against what it sees as the double standards of the West. In his recent address at the UN General Assembly, Sergei Lavrov accused the West of resorting to “brute force” around the world.
“What they did in Venezuela, was that soft power or brute force?” Russia’s foreign minister asked me this week. He was referring to America’s military operation in Caracas to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro back in January.
“The fact that [the US] bombed and destroyed Iran’s leadership, along with their families, including children, is that not brute force?”
But was Russia not resorting to brute force every day in Ukraine, I replied.
“If you mean the destruction of infrastructure used by a Nazi regime backed by the West to wage war on the Russian Federation, then we are resorting to brute force to eliminate this direct threat to us.”
Not only is this another element of Russia’ official narrative: painting Ukraine as a neo-Nazi state, creating a false pretext to justify Russia’s actions.
With the admission of Russia’s use of “brute force” in Ukraine, it is also further evidence that Moscow is in no mood to stop fighting.
