Strong non-oil performance underpins annual growth, while a late-year oil surge propels Q4 momentum as Kingdom outpaces global forecasts.
RIYADH – Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 4.5% in 2025, propelled by significant gains in both oil and non-oil sectors, according to flash estimates from the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT).
The expansion underscores the Kingdom’s continued progress in economic diversification. While oil activities grew 5.6% for the full year, non-oil sectors rose 4.9%, contributing nearly two-thirds (2.7 percentage points) of the overall growth. Government services expanded by 0.9% over the same period.
“Momentum accelerated toward year-end,” GASTAT noted, reporting a 4.9% year-on-year surge in fourth-quarter GDP, driven largely by a 10.4% jump in oil activities. Non-oil growth remained solid at 4.1% for the quarter, though government activities contracted by 1.2%.
“The main driver of real GDP growth in 2025 was non-oil activities, which contributed 2.7 percentage points,” the authority stated in its report. “Oil activities contributed 1.4 percentage points.”
On a quarterly seasonally adjusted basis, real GDP grew 1.1% in Q4 compared to Q3, with both oil and non-oil sectors posting gains of 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
The latest data aligns closely with international forecasts. The International Monetary Fund had projected Saudi GDP growth of 4% for 2025 and 2026, while the World Bank recently upgraded its outlook, expecting 4.3% growth in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027.
In a separate analysis this month, Standard Chartered projected the Kingdom’s GDP would expand 4.5% in 2026, significantly outpacing the estimated global average of 3.4%, supported by sustained investment and strong performance across energy and non-energy sectors.
