The UAE is charging towards a transformative economic future, propelled by strategic reforms, robust public-private partnerships, and a bold vision that positions it as a global hub for innovation, trade, and investment.
With a projected GDP growth of up to 6.7 per cent in 2025, the UAE is not only weathering global economic headwinds but also setting a new standard for resilience and prosperity. As the world grapples with uncertainty, the UAE’s diversified, tech-forward economy is poised to accelerate through the second half of 2025 and beyond, driven by visionary leadership, global trade agreements, and a relentless focus on sustainability and digital innovation.
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Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, UAE Minister of Economy, encapsulated this momentum at the 55th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos: “The UAE’s economic model is a testament to the power of strategic foresight and collaboration. By empowering the private sector and embracing global partnerships, we are building an economy that thrives on innovation and opportunity.” His remarks reflect the issuance of over 200,000 new economic licenses in 2024, a clear signal of the UAE’s vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem.
The UAE’s economic ascent is underpinned by sweeping reforms that have reshaped its business landscape. Over the past four years, more than 30 key economic laws have been modernised, covering e-commerce, arbitration, commercial transactions, family businesses, and cooperatives. Initiatives such as 100 per cent foreign ownership, streamlined business registration, and the expansion of over 40 free zones have solidified the UAE’s appeal as a magnet for global capital and talent. “These reforms have created a dynamic environment where businesses can scale rapidly,” Al Marri noted, emphasising long-term visas for investors and professionals, digital governance advancements, and cutting-edge infrastructure as key enablers.
International institutions echo this optimism. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 5.1 per cent GDP growth for the UAE in 2025, while the World Bank estimates 4.6 per cent. The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) forecasts a 4.4 per cent expansion, with the non-oil sector driving a 5.4 per cent surge. KPMG offers a more bullish outlook, predicting a 6.7 per cent growth rate, positioning the UAE as the GCC’s fastest-growing economy.
Oil production, while still significant, is complemented by a robust non-oil sector. The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) projects oil output to average 3.8 million barrels per day by 2027, with capacity scaling to 5 million. “This strategic increase allows the UAE to maximise returns while transitioning toward a sustainable future,” ICAEW noted. However, the non-oil sector remains the cornerstone of growth, contributing Dh1.342 trillion—75.5 per cent of the Dh1.776 trillion GDP in 2024, according to the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC). Key drivers include wholesale and retail trade (16.8 per cent), manufacturing (13.5 per cent), finance and insurance (13.2 per cent), construction (11.7 per cent), and real estate (7.8 per cent). The non-oil GDP is expected to grow by 4.7 per cent in 2025, fuelled by domestic demand and foreign investment.
His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, highlighted the success of diversification: “Our non-oil foreign trade reached Dh835 billion in the first quarter of 2025, a remarkable 18.6 per cent increase year-on-year. Non-oil exports surged by 41 per cent, putting us on track to achieve our Dh4 trillion foreign trade target well before 2031.” This aligns with the UAE’s “We the UAE 2031” vision, which aims to double GDP to Dh3 trillion, boost non-oil exports to Dh800 billion, and expand tourism to Dh450 billion.
Tourism, a linchpin of the non-oil economy, continues to thrive. Dubai welcomed 5.3 million international visitors in Q1 2025, a 3 per cent rise year-on-year, with tourist spending projected to reach Dh267.5 billion in 2025. This supports Dubai’s D33 agenda, which seeks to double the emirate’s economy and rank it among the world’s top three cities by 2033. Abu Dhabi’s cultural and leisure offerings, including the Louvre Abu Dhabi and Yas Island, further enhance the UAE’s global appeal. “Tourism is not just a sector; it’s a catalyst for economic diversification and global connectivity,” said Helal Saeed Almarri, Director-General of Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism.
The UAE’s global trade ambitions are supercharged by its pursuit of 27 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs). Non-oil trade surpassed Dh3 trillion in 2024, a historic milestone. “CEPAs are unlocking new markets and enhancing trade efficiency,” said Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, in a recent statement praising the UAE’s global integration. These agreements have bolstered trade with partners like India, Turkey, and Indonesia, with non-oil exports to these markets growing by double digits in 2024.
Global rankings reflect the UAE’s economic prowess. The 2024 World Competitiveness Report ranked the UAE 7th globally, ahead of Japan and Canada, excelling in employment, internet penetration, and dispute resolution. The Soft Power Index placed it 10th worldwide, while Numbeo and Gitnux reports consistently name it among the safest countries. Henley & Partners projects the UAE will attract 6,700 millionaires in 2024, the highest globally, driven by tax incentives, safety, and world-class infrastructure. “The UAE’s lifestyle and business environment are unmatched,” said Dominic Volek, Group Head of Private Clients at Henley.
The UAE’s commitment to sustainability, amplified by its COP28 hosting, has further elevated its global standing. Adnoc’s $23 billion decarbonisation roadmap and Dubai’s $8.2 trillion D33 economic plan underscore a future-focused approach. “The UAE is not just adapting to global trends—it’s shaping them,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, commending the UAE’s clean energy initiatives.
Sectoral growth in 2024 paints a vibrant picture. Transport and logistics expanded by 9.6 per cent, driven by a 10 per cent increase in air passenger traffic to 147.8 million. Construction grew 8.4 per cent, fuelled by mega-projects like Dubai’s Palm Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi’s infrastructure developments. The financial and insurance sector rose 7 per cent, supported by strong bank performance and capital inflows. Hospitality and food services grew 5.7 per cent, reflecting robust tourist demand.
Hanan Mansour Ahli, managing director of the FCSC, stated the 2024 figures showcase the UAE’s ability to balance growth with sustainability, ensuring long-term prosperity.
The “We the UAE 2031” vision provides a clear roadmap, targeting top 10 global rankings in human development, food security, and quality of life, while aiming to be the safest country and a leader in AI and clean energy. The Ministry of Finance’s e-invoicing regime, leveraging the Peppol-based system, enhances VAT compliance and modernises the business environment. The “US-UAE AI Acceleration” framework, announced during President Trump’s 2025 visit, fosters collaboration in AI, cybersecurity, and digital innovation, further strengthening the tech sector.
The CBUAE emphasises macroeconomic stability, with steady monetary policies and robust foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows supporting a 5.4 per cent non-oil GDP growth in 2025. “The UAE’s diversified model, backed by sovereign wealth funds and fiscal discipline, ensures resilience against global risks,” said CBUAE Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama. With inflation projected to remain below 2 per cent, according to the IMF, the UAE is well-positioned to navigate global economic challenges.
The UAE’s economic narrative is one of ambition and achievement. By fostering innovation, embracing global partnerships, and prioritising sustainability, the country is not only growing but redefining what a modern economy can be. As Al Marri declared in Davos, “The UAE is evolving into a future-ready economy that sets a global benchmark.” With its sights set on Vision 2031, the UAE is poised to deliver sustained prosperity, making it a shining example of opportunity in an uncertain world.
issacjohn@khaleejtimes.comis Managing Editor at media and has over 45 years of experience in top-tier newspapers across UAE. A seasoned business writer and economic analyst, he brings unmatched insight into the geopolitics and geoeconomics shaping the Gulf and India.
