What we know about Pakistan-Afghanistan ceasefire, will it hold?

Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to an “immediate ceasefire” after a week of deadly clashes along their border, as the ties between the two South Asian neighbours plunged to their lowest point since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

Both countries agreed to stop fighting and work towards “lasting peace and stability” after peace talks in Doha, the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday, about the deal it mediated alongside Turkiye.

Dozens of people have been killed and hundreds wounded in the worst bout of violence in recent years. The violence erupted on October 11 at multiple fronts along their 2,600km (1,600-mile) border, after Islamabad allegedly carried out strikes in Kabul and the southeastern province of Paktika against what it said were armed groups linked to attacks inside Pakistan.

So, what do we know about the truce agreement and what might come next?

What do we know about the ceasefire?

After a round of negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan in the Qatari capital, Doha, “the two sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire and the establishment of mechanisms to consolidate lasting peace and stability between the two countries,” Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced in a statement.

“The two parties also agreed to hold follow-up meetings in the coming days to ensure the sustainability of the ceasefire and verify its implementation in a reliable and sustainable manner, thus contributing to achieving security and stability in both countries,” the statement added.

Following the Qatari ministry’s statement, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif posted confirmation of the deal on X.

“Cross-border terrorism from Afghan territory will cease immediately,” Asif wrote. “Both countries will respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Asif further confirmed a “follow-up meeting between the delegations is scheduled to take place in the Turkish city of Istanbul on October 25 to discuss the matters in detail.”

Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said the truce was “the first step in the right direction”.

“We look forward to the establishment of a concrete and verifiable monitoring mechanism, in the next meeting to be hosted by Turkiye, to address the menace of terrorism emanating from Afghan soil towards Pakistan. It is important to put all efforts in place to prevent any further loss of lives,” he posted on X.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, said that under the terms of the agreement, “both sides reaffirm their commitment to peace, mutual respect, and the maintenance of strong and constructive neighbourly relations.

“Both sides are committed to resolving issues and disputes through dialogue,” Mujahid said in a post on X. “It has been decided that neither country will undertake any hostile actions against the other, nor will they support groups carrying out attacks against the Government of Pakistan.”

Mujahid said the countries have agreed on refraining “from targeting each other’s security forces, civilians, or critical infrastructure”.

Mujahid, as well as Dar and Asif, thanked Qatar and Turkiye for their role in facilitating the talks that led to the ceasefire.

Why Pakistan has blamed the Taliban for attacks inside its territory?

Pakistan wants the Taliban to rein in armed groups such as the Taliban Pakistan, known by the acronym TTP, and others blamed for carrying out attacks on its territory. Armed attacks by TTP rebels and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which operates in the resource-rich Balochistan province, have surged in recent years, with 2025 on track to become the deadliest year.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which border Afghanistan, have borne the brunt of the violence.

At least 2,414 deaths have been recorded in the first three quarters of this year, according to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based think tank.

Pakistan and the Taliban, once allies over shared regional security interests, have fallen out as Islamabad claims that Afghanistan is giving haven to the TTP – an allegation Kabul has rejected.

Kabul and Islamabad have also clashed over their international border, called the Durand Line, which is recognised by Pakistan but not by Afghanistan.

TTP’s ideology is aligned with the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, the groups have different goals and operate independently.

Pakistan has sought assurances from the Taliban that these groups, which operate in the porous border regions with Afghanistan, will not be allowed to operate freely and that the attacks across the border will cease.

In a post later on Sunday, Mujahid, the Taliban spokesman, stressed that the Afghan soil “will not be allowed to be used against any other country”. It is “the consistent stance of the Islamic Emirate” he said, referring to the official name of the Afghanistan government.

“It does not support any attack against anyone and has always emphasised this stance,” he posted on X.

Islamabad also wants the Taliban to prevent the regrouping or expansion of anti-Pakistan networks within Afghanistan, which the government considers a threat to Pakistan’s stability and broader regional strategy.

Abdullah Baheer, a political analyst based in Kabul, said the bombing of Afghanistan and killing of civilians is “a problematic model”.

“Show me one piece of evidence that shows they hit any TTP operative in Afghanistan in the past week of bombing, despite the 50-odd dead and 550 injured,” he told media.

He added that the TTP is a local rebel group within Pakistan that far precedes the Taliban’s coming to power in Afghanistan. “Are you expecting the Taliban to come forth and stop the TTP from pursuing any of its political or military goals?” he asked.

“Let’s take the argument that TTP are operating from safe havens within Afghanistan. The question is, you mistake influence over a group that is an independent group to an extent of controlling them,” he added.

As previously mentioned, the Taliban denies providing safe haven to TTP within Afghanistan’s borders.

Why the spike in attacks inside Pakistan?

Islamabad was the prime backer of the Taliban after it was removed by US-led NATO troops in 2001. It was also accused of providing a haven to Taliban fighters as they waged an armed rebellion against the United States’ occupation of Afghanistan for 20 years.

But relations have soured over the surge in attacks inside Pakistan.

The TTP has re-emerged as one of Pakistan’s biggest national security threats, as it has conducted more than 600 attacks against Pakistani forces in the past year, according to a report by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an independent nonprofit.

According to the CRSS, the Islamabad-based think tank, the first three-quarters of this year have seen a 46 percent surge in violence compared with last year.

The violence attributed to the TTP had decreased from its peak in the late 2000s and early 2010s after Islamabad involved the armed groups in talks and addressed some of their demands in 2021, which include the release of their members from prison and an end to military operations in the tribal areas.

The TTP also demanded the reversal of the 2018 merger of the tribal region with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. A stricter imposition of their interpretation of Islamic law is also one of their demands.

A month after the Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021, it mediated talks between the Pakistani military and the TTP, a decision endorsed and pushed by Imran Khan, Pakistan’s then-prime minister. But Khan, who championed talks with the armed groups, was removed as prime minister in April 2022.

Violence surged after the TTP unilaterally walked out of the ceasefire deal in 2022, after accusing Islamabad of renewed military operations in the region.

Since its founding in 2007, the TTP has targeted civilians and law enforcement personnel, resulting in thousands of deaths. Their deadliest attack came in December 2014, when they targeted the Army Public School (APS) in Peshawar, killing more than 130 students.

The group remains banned in Pakistan and has been designated a “terrorist” group by the US.

The Pakistani army has conducted multiple operations to eliminate the group, but has struggled to achieve its goal as fighters have used the porous border to move back and forth between the neighbouring countries.

Baheer, the political analyst, said that there are “no winners in war. There are only losers”.

“This logic of bombing Afghanistan into submission didn’t work for the United States for 20 years of their occupation. Why do we think it will work now?” the Kabul-based analyst asked.