Why is Alberta voting to separate from Canada, and how likely is it to happen?The oil-rich province will decide on Monday whether to stay part of Canada or trigger a binding independence referendum.1 day agoUS & Canada

The western Canadian province of Alberta will ask its citizens on Monday whether they want to remain part of Canada or kick-start the process of holding a binding referendum on separation.

The vote will mark a major test of the country’s unity, the first in decades.

Alberta’s leader, Premier Danielle Smith, announced in May that the question on independence would be put to voters, though she herself supports a unified Canada.

There has been a growing separatist sentiment in the oil-rich province in recent years, and the vote comes after 300,000 people signed a petition asking that a referendum be held on the matter.

The question being put to voters won’t be a simple “stay” or “leave”.

Instead, Albertans will be asked: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

The premier’s office clarified to the BBC that voters will have a choice of checking two boxes – option A being to remain in Canada and option B being to start the legal process to hold a binding separation referendum.

There are nine other questions that have been put to voters, though they have been overshadowed by the one on independence.

They deal with two main topics: immigration and Constitutional matters.

For the most part, all of them seek to ask Albertans about options to gain more autonomy from Ottawa.

On immigration, voters will be asked whether they want the province to have increased control over immigration, to bring it to “more sustainable levels” and introducing a law requiring people to provide proof of citizenship to vote in an Alberta provincial election.

The rest focus on access to social services like healthcare for non-permanent residents.

The Constitutional questions include one seeking to allow provinces to push for the power to elect provincial judges and for an elected Senate. Senators in Canada are currently appointed by the governor general on the advice of the prime minister.

The referendum question is a result of a push by a group of Albertans who have been advocating for the province to be independent from Canada.

Over the past year, they held townhalls across the province to gauge interest from the public. They then launched a citizen-led petition to separate earlier this year, which gathered more than 300,000 signatures.

But the petition was blocked by an Alberta court early this year.

A judge ruled that Alberta, which authorised the gathering of signatures for a proposed independence referendum under a citizen petition law, failed to consult indigenous First Nations whose land would be affected should the province become an independent state.

Meanwhile, another group led by a former deputy premier of Alberta, Thomas Lukaszuk, collected signatures for an anti-separation petition called Forever Canadian. That was signed by more than 400,000 Albertans.

The province’s population is slightly more than five million.

Smith said in May that she was “deeply troubled” by the court decision, and will not let “a single judge silence the voices of hundreds of thousands of Albertans”.

Her government has appealed against the decision, she said. But in the meantime, “kicking the can down the road only prolongs a very emotional and important debate”.

She has also faced pressure from separatist Albertans, some within her own political party, to hold a referendum on independence regardless of the legal decision.

The separatist movement is led by Mitch Sylvestre, a gun shop owner from the town of Bonnyville, and Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer based in Calgary. It has been supported by other figures along the way.

Both Sylvestre and Rath are members of a group called the Alberta Prosperity Project, which argues that the province’s economic growth has been hindered by years of Liberal party rule in Ottawa.

In particular, many in the movement are frustrated with environmental policies that they believe have stood in the way of building pipelines and unlocking resources from the oil-rich province, which traditionally leans conservative.

They also believe that Alberta contributes far more to the country than it receives, and that Ottawa has a disproportionate say in its internal matters.

The sentiment is rooted in “western alienation” – a term that has been used for decades to describe the sense by some in Canada’s western provinces that they are often overlooked and underrepresented by federal politicians in Canada’s capital.

But the movement is not uniform in its demands.

At a separatist townhall last year, some told the BBC that they wanted to use the threat of independence as a bargaining chip with Ottawa, while others said they would like to follow through with a provincial divorce.

A few said they would be open to Alberta joining the US.

Rath has told the BBC that he believes Alberta has more in common culturally with parts of the US than the rest of Canada.

He has also travelled to Washington several times on what he has described as a “fact-finding” mission, where he and other separatists met Trump administration officials to see if the US government would support an independent Alberta with a line of credit.

Rath has not publicly named which Trump officials the group has met.

Alberta Elections have their work cut out for them.

All the ballots – a separate colour-coded one for each question – will be counted by hand.

They have 48 hours to complete the count, which starts at 20:00 local time on Monday (03:00 BST Tuesday) and can be delayed if there are voters still in line.

Question 10, on separation, will be counted in its entirety first, given the high interest in that result.

Alberta Elections said that results for that question should be available in the early hours of Tuesday.

The launch of a referendum triggered a five-month campaign period for interested parties on both sides of the issue.

Smith said she will vote for Albert to remain. She argues that, while some grievances raised by the separatists are legitimate, the province has recently been able to make significant inroads with Ottawa, including on developing a pipeline project.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has ambitions of making Canada an “energy superpower”, has pressed the case for the province to stay.

“We’re renovating the country as we go, and Alberta being at the centre of that is essential,” Carney, who was raised in Edmonton, Alberta, said in May.

Opposition Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who enjoys significant support in Alberta and who was raised in Calgary, also said that his party will be advocating for unity.

Meanwhile, Rath, one of the most prominent separatist voices, has expressed disappointment in the referendum question put forward by Smith, arguing it should have been a direct “stay or leave” option.

He has threatened to organise a vote against her leadership of Alberta’s United Conservative Party, which could put Smith’s political future in jeopardy.

“To hell with 301,620 Albertans who were promised a vote on their question,” he wrote on social media following her announcement. “Danielle Smith just lost her base!”

First Nations in Alberta have also criticised Smith, calling her decision to hold a referendum despite the court ruling “undemocratic” and “authoritarian”.

If Albertans vote to leave, Smith said that would kickstart a “legal process” to hold a binding referendum, adding there are a number of steps that would have to be taken to get there.

“I will accept the result of this referendum,” she said. “That’s why I’ll be campaigning hard to try to convince Albertans of my position, which is to remain.”

She has since said if Albertans vote to move ahead with a binding referendum, that could happen as soon as 2027.

Polls suggest that the majority of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada.

A September poll by Janet Brown Opinion Research for broadcaster CBC suggested 72% support for the remain side, and 23% for the leave side, with slightly higher support among male and rural voters.

Despite the lack of popular support, there are concerns of a Brexit-style upset, when UK voters surprised pollsters by voting to leave the European Union, especially if people choose to ‘send a message’ to Ottawa.

However, that scenario is seen as unlikely.