Faced with evolving consumer preferences and tightening regulations worldwide, global tobacco giants are investing billions to develop what they term “reduced-risk products,” positioning scientific innovation as their path to survival.
This strategic pivot, however, unfolds against a backdrop of varying perspectives from public health authorities who raise questions about whether this represents genuine change or merely the industry’s latest reinvention.
Some public-health experts say this shift is less about harm reduction and more about protecting long-term profits in the face of tightening regulations and declining cigarette sales. Japan Tobacco International (JTI), one of the world’s largest tobacco manufacturers, is among those channelling substantial R&D funding into heated tobacco systems such as its flagship device, Ploom.
Across the globe, in laboratories and R&D centres from Tokyo to Richmond, the industry is orchestrating such a profound transformation — one framed in the language of public health but driven by stark business necessity.
The scale of investment is staggering. JTI’s parent company, Japan Tobacco Group, has committed over 650 billion yen (approximately $4.3 billion) to its reduced-risk product portfolio between 2025 and 2027, more than doubling its previous three-year investment. However, this does not represent an abandonment of traditional products. JTI continues to invest in combustibles where it makes strategic sense, exemplified by its $2.4 billion Vector Group acquisition in 2024. The company maintains that both product categories will coexist for the foreseeable future, with combustible products holding a larger share beyond 2035.
Some industry players present such huge investments as evidence of a commitment to a “smoke-free future.” But public-health experts caution that the strategy mirrors a familiar pattern: create products that appear safer, promote them through industry-funded science, lobby for lighter regulation, and secure new generations of nicotine users — all while sustaining corporate revenues from addictive products
The centrepiece of JTI’s strategy is the Ploom heated tobacco system, a device that its General Manager for the Middle East, Vitalija Kaneviciene, claims as “the very essence of JTI’s innovation journey — science-driven, consumer-centric, enhanced experiences, and grounded in our commitment to offer adult smokers credible, reduced-risk products.” She emphasises how the device’s “precision-heating technology” reflects years of research to “translate science into meaningful choice.”
Kaneviciene noted that the market’s appetite for innovation allows JTI to “listen, adapt, and evolve in real time with our consumers.” This expansion is part of a broader ambition to deploy the Ploom system, while aiming for profitability in its reduced-risk business by 2028. Perhaps most tellingly, JTI executives are openly advocating for regulatory frameworks that “evolve in line with innovation.”
JTI is far from alone in this strategic pivot. Across the industry, tobacco giants are repositioning themselves as champions of “harm reduction.” Philip Morris International now generates over 40 per cent of its revenue from smoke-free products like IQOS, while British American Tobacco’s “New Categories” segment accounts for nearly 18 per cent of group revenue. The financial stakes are substantial, with the US tobacco market alone projected to grow from $112.82 billion in 2024 to $180.48 billion by 2030, driven largely by alternative nicotine products.
The industry points to scientific evidence to support this transformation. British American Tobacco’s research on oral nicotine pouches indicates they offer an over 99 per cent reduction in exposure to harmful toxicants compared to cigarette smoke. Similarly, companies frequently cite Sweden’s experience with snus — a traditional oral tobacco — noting the country has the lowest smoking prevalence in the European Union at 5.4 per cent and the lowest mortality rates from tobacco-related cancers. Additionally, established health authorities have weighed in: the US Food and Drug Administration has granted Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP) designations to certain novel tobacco products, while the UK’s National Health Service includes vaping devices in its smoking cessation recommendations.
Yet some public health authorities maintain a stance of cautious scepticism. The World Health Organisation emphasises that the best way to reduce tobacco-related harm remains quitting entirely and insists that regulatory decisions “should be independent of the commercial interests of the tobacco industry.” This position is rooted in the industry’s documented history of funding research to “manufacture doubt about the harms of smoking.” Independent analysis has identified significant gaps in the evidence base for these new products. A 2022 systematic review found that clinical trials assessing heated tobacco products “fall short of what is needed to determine whether HTPs are beneficial to public health” and noted that 29 of the 40 trials assessed were tobacco industry-affiliated.
Behind the public health rhetoric lie undeniable business realities. Global cigarette volumes are projected to decline by approximately 2 per cent in 2025, creating a powerful incentive for diversification.
The industry’s future now increasingly depends on the success of these reduced-risk platforms. As Kaneviciene notes, “Our goal is to balance progress and responsibility — driving innovation that benefits adult consumers, economies, and society.” Whether this balance can be struck in a way that genuinely serves public health interests, rather than simply creating new markets for nicotine delivery, remains one of the most pressing questions at the intersection of business, science, and public policy. The transformation is underway, but its ultimate impact — on public health, on industry profitability, and on the next generation of nicotine consumers — will only become clear with time and independent scientific scrutiny.
