The UAE and India have reaffirmed their strategic economic partnership with a bold outlook for bilateral trade, even as global headwinds, shifting supply chains, and punitive US trade tariffs create uncertainty for emerging economies.
The message from Mumbai, where UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi met Indian counterpart Piyush Goyal and senior business leaders, was clear: The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Cepa) has turned into a resilient engine of growth that can withstand external turbulence.
Non-oil trade between the UAE and India reached $37.6 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 33.9 per cent rise compared to the same period last year. This surge has put both nations firmly on track to surpass the ambitious $100 billion annual trade target set when Cepa came into force in 2022. “This visit underlines our shared values and economic goals, and reflects the vast potential that is still to be tapped,” Dr Al Zeyoudi said in Mumbai. “Cepa has been instrumental in accelerating trade and investment by enhancing market access, boosting industrial productivity, and facilitating cooperation in priority sectors.”
The timing of this renewed commitment is critical. The global oil market remains subdued, Opec+ production increases are pressuring prices, and US President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Indian imports to 50 per cent has introduced another layer of uncertainty into the trade landscape. Yet both Indian and UAE officials project confidence that their partnership can offset external risks. “In a changing world, our ties with India remain unshakable,” Dr Al Zeyoudi stressed. “Together, we are creating resilient supply chains and limitless opportunities for our people.”
India’s rapid growth trajectory underpins this optimism. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal highlighted that India remains the fastest-growing major economy, expanding at 7.8 per cent in the most recent quarter. He reiterated India’s target of reaching a $5 trillion economy by 2027 and an extraordinary $32–35 trillion by 2047. The UAE, with its position as a global logistics and investment hub, is increasingly seen as a springboard for Indian goods and services into Africa, the Middle East, and Europe.
One flagship project reinforcing this role is Bharat Mart, a 2.7 million square foot complex being developed in Dubai’s Jebel Ali Free Zone by DP World. The facility, designed as a one-stop hub for Indian exporters, will allow manufacturers to showcase products and reach global markets more efficiently. The initiative highlights how infrastructure and trade facilitation are becoming as important as tariff reductions in deepening bilateral ties.
The focus sectors for expansion reflect the new realities of global commerce. Both sides are prioritising food security, renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, healthcare innovation, artificial intelligence, and fintech. Al Zeyoudi and Goyal, joined by Food Processing Industries Minister Chirag Paswan, also met Indian stakeholders in agriculture and food processing, underscoring the central role of resilient value chains. For the UAE, securing long-term food supplies is a strategic priority; for India, tapping the UAE’s capital and logistics networks offers a chance to globalise its agribusiness sector.
Private sector leaders voiced equal enthusiasm. R Mukundan, President-Designate of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), remarked that CEPA is not just a policy framework but “a living model of how quickly two nations can act with trust and ambition.” With trade already accelerating faster than projected, industry players believe the $100 billion milestone could be achieved earlier than expected. Humaid Mohammed bin Salem, Secretary General of the UAE Chambers, described the partnership as “future-focused, built on advanced technologies and sustainable growth.”
Analysts note that the UAE–India relationship is particularly important at a time when US protectionist policies could redirect global trade flows. India has resisted pressure from Washington to curtail Russian oil imports, instead strengthening energy and financial ties with Gulf partners. The UAE, balancing its role as both an Opec member and a global investment hub, provides India with a stable alternative platform for capital inflows and re-exports. “This corridor is now about more than bilateral trade — it is about creating insulation from geopolitical shocks,” said one senior economist at a Dubai-based investment bank.
The resilience of this partnership is also evident in investment flows. UAE companies are deepening stakes in India’s renewable energy, logistics, and technology sectors, while Indian firms are expanding their footprint in the UAE’s free zones and real estate markets. Bharat Mart is emblematic of this two-way approach — channeling Indian goods outwards while anchoring them within the UAE’s global trading ecosystem.
As the Cepa agreement marks its third anniversary, both sides see it as a springboard rather than a finished product. New areas of cooperation are being mapped, particularly in green hydrogen, digital services, and circular economy models. Leaders in Mumbai emphasised that regulatory simplification, ease of doing business, and tax reforms would be crucial in sustaining momentum.
Trade experts noted that the UAE–India trade corridor has become one of the fastest-growing globally, a rare bright spot at a time when international trade volumes are weighed down by tariffs, protectionism, and sluggish global growth. “With bold political will, complementary strengths, and strong private sector participation, both nations are betting that their partnership will not only hit the $100 billion trade mark but set the foundation for regional integration and global growth in the decades ahead.”
