WASHINGTON (news agencies) — Democrats and Republicans don’t agree on much, but they share a conviction that the government should help American manufacturers, one way or another.
Democratic President Joe Biden handed out subsidies to chipmakers and electric vehicle manufacturers. Republican President Donald Trump is building a wall of import taxes — tariffs — around the U.S. economy to protect domestic industry from foreign competition.
Yet American manufacturing has been stuck in a rut for nearly three years. And it remains to be seen whether the trend will reverse itself.
The U.S. Labor Department reports that American factories shed 7,000 jobs in June for the second month in a row. Manufacturing employment is on track to drop for the third straight year.
The Institute for Supply Management, an association of purchasing managers, reported that manufacturing activity in the United States shrank in June for the fourth straight month. In fact, U.S. factories have been in decline for 30 of the 32 months since October 2022, according to ISM.
“The past three years have been a real slog for manufacturing,’’ said Eric Hagopian, CEO of Pilot Precision Products, a maker of industrial cutting tools in South Deerfield, Massachusetts. “We didn’t get destroyed like we did in the recession of 2008. But we’ve been in this stagnant, sort of stationary environment.’’
Big economic factors contributed to the slowdown: A surge in inflation, arising from the unexpectedly strong economic recovery from COVID-19, raised factory expenses and prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023. The higher borrowing costs added to the strain.
Government policy was meant to help.
Biden’s tax incentives for semiconductor and clean energy production triggered a factory-building boom – investment in manufacturing facilities more than tripled from April 2021 through October 2024 – that seemed to herald a coming surge in factory production and hiring. Eventually anyway.
But the factory investment spree has faded as the incoming Trump administration launched trade wars and, working with Congress, ended Biden’s subsidies for green energy. Now, predicts Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, “manufacturing production will continue to flatline.”
“If production is flat, that suggests manufacturing employment will continue to slide,” Zandi said. “Manufacturing is likely to suffer a recession in the coming year.’’
Meanwhile, Trump is attempting to protect U.S. manufacturers — and to coax factories to relocate and produce in America — by imposing tariffs on goods made overseas. He slapped 50% taxes on steel and aluminum, 25% on autos and auto parts, 10% on many other imports.
In some ways, Trump’s tariffs can give U.S. factories an edge. Chris Zuzick, vice president at Waukesha Metal Products, said the Sussex, Wisconsin-based manufacturer is facing stiff competition for a big contract in Texas. A foreign company offers much lower prices. But “when you throw the tariff on, it gets us closer,’’ Zuzick said. “So that’s definitely a situation where it’s beneficial.’’
But American factories import and use foreign products, too – machinery, chemicals, raw materials like steel and aluminum. Taxing those inputs can drive up costs and make U.S producers less competitive in world markets.
Consider steel. Trump’s tariffs don’t just make imported steel more expensive. By putting the foreign competition at a disadvantage, the tariffs allow U.S. steelmakers to raise prices – and they have. U.S.-made steel was priced at $960 per metric ton as of June 23, more than double the world export price of $440 per ton, according to industry monitor SteelBenchmarker.
