Author: Dr Issac PJ

As tensions escalate across the Middle East and crude oil prices surge past $100 a barrel, global markets are witnessing a puzzling divergence. Oil has jumped sharply on fears of supply disruptions, yet gold — traditionally the world’s most trusted safe-haven asset — has struggled to mount a comparable rally, hovering near the $5,000-per-ounce level instead of surging decisively higher.The contrasting movements highlight how modern financial markets are responding to geopolitical shocks in a more complex way than in past crises.Oil’s rise has been driven primarily by real supply risks. The conflict has disrupted shipping routes around the Strait of…

The UAE has successfully raised Dh1.1 billion through the March 2026 issuance of dirham-denominated Treasury Bonds, underscoring strong investor confidence in the country’s financial strength and economic stability even amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  The auction, conducted by the Ministry of Finance in collaboration with the Central Bank of the UAE as issuing and payment agent, marked the first sovereign bond sale since the latest regional escalation. It forms part of the UAE’s scheduled Treasury Bonds issuance programme for 2026.Treasury bonds, commonly known as T-bonds, are government debt securities issued to raise funds for public spending and…

India’s rapidly expanding economic strength, diversified energy strategy and proactive policy measures are helping shield the world’s fourth-largest economy from the worst effects of the oil market turmoil triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.Even as crude prices surge above $100 a barrel and shipping disruptions threaten global energy supplies, policymakers in New Delhi say the country has sufficient fuel stocks, fiscal buffers and contingency plans to maintain stability in domestic energy markets and support economic growth.Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the country currently has adequate fuel supplies and robust contingency planning to deal with volatility…

Global oil markets are bracing for renewed volatility as escalating military tensions in the Gulf push crude prices toward the $100-a-barrel mark and raise fears of the largest supply disruption in modern energy history.Benchmark crude prices have surged in recent days amid mounting concerns that the conflict between the United States and Iran could severely disrupt oil flows through the Gulf — the world’s most critical energy artery. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading close to $99 per barrel, while Brent crude is hovering near similar levels after briefly spiking above $100 earlier this week as traders priced in intensifying…

Global financial institutions, credit rating agencies and economists are reaffirming strong confidence in the resilience of GCC economies, especially the UAE, despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, highlighting powerful fiscal buffers, vast sovereign wealth assets and accelerating economic diversification as key pillars supporting stability.Recent assessments by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings underscore that Gulf economies remain among the strongest in the emerging markets universe, with the UAE retaining its AA/Stable sovereign credit rating thanks to exceptionally strong government balance sheets and large external assets.  S&P Global Ratings said the UAE’s fiscal and external positions remain among the…

India’s equity markets have suffered a sharp setback amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, wiping out nearly $240 billion in investor wealth in a single week and prompting the country’s market regulator to urge investors to remain cautious as volatility grips global financial systems. Benchmark indices extended their losing streak for a third consecutive week as global investors pulled money from risk assets following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict and fears of wider disruption to energy supplies. The BSE Sensex dropped 1,471 points, or 1.93 per cent, on Friday to close at 74,563.92, while the Nifty 50 fell 488…

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to strain refining operations across the Gulf, raising the prospect of refinery run cuts as storage tanks fill and export routes remain blocked.Energy analysts warn that the disruption — affecting one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints — could force refiners across the GCC to scale back operations if refined fuel exports remain constrained for several weeks.  The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and petroleum products, roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption, making it the world’s most critical energy transit corridor.The…

The UAE’s banking and real estate sectors are expected to remain pillars of economic resilience despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, supported by strong liquidity, solid loan growth and sustained demand across key property markets.According to S&P Global Ratings, the UAE’s banking system has demonstrated “strong resilience and financial soundness,” placing it in a solid position to weather potential capital outflows or temporary economic disruptions linked to regional conflict.The ratings agency expects bank lending in the UAE to grow by 10 to 12 per cent annually in 2026 and 2027, supported by ample liquidity, strong corporate activity and the…

Dubai-based global logistics giant DP World reported record financial results for 2025, underlining the strength of its diversified global operations despite a volatile geopolitical and trade environment.The company announced that revenue rose 22 per cent year-on-year to $24.4 billion, while adjusted Ebitda increased 18 per cent to $6.4 billion, delivering a robust margin of 26.3 per cent. Strong growth across its Ports & Terminals and Logistics businesses helped drive the performance.Group profit climbed 32.2 per cent to $1.96 billion, supported by higher cargo volumes, improved pricing and disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow also strengthened, rising 14 per cent to…

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia), one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds with assets estimated at more than $1 trillion, has partnered with global private investment firm Ardian to launch a new real estate secondaries platform, highlighting how Gulf investors continue to expand global dealmaking despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.The platform will focus on acquiring stakes in existing real estate funds and property portfolios from investors seeking liquidity — a segment known as real estate secondaries. The strategy has gained traction globally as rising interest rates, valuation resets and tighter financing conditions prompt investors to rebalance…